Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SSI recipients, July 2026
Social Security Administration SSI Monthly Statistics Table 2 total number of recipients for July 2026, all federally administered payments, end of month, first print
current forecast · 80% CI7.3M
7.3M7.3M7.3M
history:2026-05 total SSI recipients, millions: 7.3M2026-04 total SSI recipients, millions: 7.3M2026-03 total SSI recipients, millions: 7.4M2026-02 total SSI recipients, millions: 7.4M2026-01 total SSI recipients, millions: 7.4M2025-12 total SSI recipients, millions: 7.4M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-07T14:15:30Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 7, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- ssa.ssi.total_recipients.2026-07.first_print
Key drivers
- recent total SSI caseload has declined from 7.392 million in December 2025 to 7.323 million in May 2026
- latest two-month average decline is about 0.0146 million recipients
- state-supplementation-only recipients continue to edge down
- no identified July 2026 policy mechanism creates a discrete caseload break
- short-horizon uncertainty is dominated by monthly administrative churn and returned-check adjustment risk
Resolution
- source
- Social Security Administration SSI Monthly Statistics
- expected
- August 31, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first published July 2026 value in SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 2, row July 2026, column Total number of recipients for all federally administered payments. The resolving observation is the first July 2026 Table 2 print whenever SSA posts it; 2026-08-31 is the catalog latest expected resolution by-date based on SSA's month-level monthly publishing schedule, not a claimed exact release day. The SSA table publishes counts as whole recipients; convert to millions by dividing by 1,000,000 and round forecast display values to three decimals. Use the first official print only and ignore later revisions or adjusted checks after the first July 2026 table is posted.
- Data point
- ssa.ssi.total_recipients.2026-07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.