Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
UK Construction Output Growth, May 2026
What will the first ONS estimate of total construction output in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted chained volume measure, month-on-month percentage growth be for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.1%
-0.9%+0.1%+1.1%
history:2026-04 latest monthly growth: +0.1%2026-03 monthly growth: +1.5%2026-02 monthly growth: +0.5%2026-01 first monthly growth: +0.2%2025-12 monthly growth: -0.5%2025-11 first monthly growth: -1.3%2025-10 first monthly growth: -0.6%2025-09 monthly growth: +0.2%2025-08 first monthly growth: -0.3%2025-07 monthly growth: +0.2%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-08T16:57:27Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- ons.outputintheconstructionindustryallworksummary.total_construction_output_mom_sa.2026-05.first_print
Key drivers
- April growth slowed to 0.1% after March's 1.5% financial-year push
- three-month total output momentum was positive at 1.6% to April 2026
- repair and maintenance was stronger than new work in April
- Q1 2026 new orders fell 10.5%, limiting upside for new work
- recent monthly volatility implies about 0.75 percentage-point sigma
Resolution
- source
- Office for National Statistics Construction output in Great Britain: May 2026 and Output in the construction industry: all-work summary
- expected
- July 16, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first ONS-published estimate for May 2026 monthly total construction output in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted chained volume measure, all work, month-on-month percentage growth, rounded to one decimal place. Use the value in the first Construction output in Great Britain: May 2026 release or its associated Output in the construction industry all-work summary dataset on 16 July 2026; ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- ons.outputintheconstructionindustryallworksummary.total_construction_output_mom_sa.2026-05.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.