Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
UK CPI annual inflation, May 2026
What will ONS first report as the UK Consumer Prices Index 12-month inflation rate for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI2.9%
2.6%2.9%3.2%
history:Jan: 3.0%Feb: 3.0%Mar: 3.3%Apr: 2.8%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
UK indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T10:32:04+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 2.8%
- forecast
- 2.9% with 80% CI [2.6%, 3.2%]
- error
- -0.1% · absolute 0.1%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.079 · PIT 0.37
- source
- ons Consumer price inflation, UK: May 2026
ONS reported CPI rose by 2.8% in the 12 months to May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- UK indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Energy and motor fuel prices
- Services inflation
- Food prices
- Base effects from 2025 bill changes
Resolution
- source
- Office for National Statistics, consumer price inflation
- resolved
- June 17, 2026
- actual
- 2.8%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published ONS CPI 12-month rate for May 2026 in the consumer price inflation release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- ons.cpi.annual_rate
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Economist consensus and Bank of England monitoring
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · Bank Rate reaction
- run
- UK indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: ons.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.