Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
UK Index of Services May 2026
What will the Office for National Statistics report as the first-print Total Services chained-volume seasonally adjusted Index of Services index for May 2026, 2022=100, index points?
current forecast · 80% CI+104.7
+104.1+104.7+105.3
history:Apr 2026 official monthly growth, percent: -0.2Mar 2026 official monthly growth, percent: +0.3Feb 2026 official monthly growth, percent: +0.5Jan 2026 official monthly growth, percent: +0.0Dec 2025 official monthly growth, percent: +0.3Nov 2025 official monthly growth, percent: +0.3
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-07T18:28:05Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 7, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- ons.ios.total_services_cvmsa_index.2026-05.first_print
Key drivers
- April services fall creates modest rebound base
- Q1 2026 services momentum was positive
- May first print will incorporate wider national-accounts revisions back to January 2024
- Middle East conflict note in April release adds downside uncertainty
- Service-sector source mix is broad, with MBS at 34.9 percent of GVA weight
Resolution
- source
- Office for National Statistics Index of Services, UK: May 2026
- expected
- July 16, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first ONS print for May 2026 in the Index of Services time series IOS1 or the ONS Index of Services main components and sectors table, using the Total Services chained-volume seasonally adjusted index, 2022=100, in index points. Use the first value published in the 16 July 2026 Index of Services, UK: May 2026 release and ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- ons.ios.total_services_cvmsa_index.2026-05.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.