Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
UK monthly GDP growth, April 2026
What will ONS first report as UK real GDP growth in April 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change?
current forecast · 80% CI-0.1%
-0.5%-0.1%+0.3%
history:Jan: +0.0%Feb: +0.4%Mar: +0.3%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
UK indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T10:32:04+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- -0.1%
- forecast
- -0.1% with 80% CI [-0.5%, +0.3%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute +0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.087 · PIT 0.50
- source
- ons GDP monthly estimate, April 2026
Monthly real GDP -0.1% in April (services -0.2%); matched recorded point exactly.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- UK indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Services output
- Retail and consumer demand
- Construction output
- Production volatility
Resolution
- source
- Office for National Statistics, GDP monthly estimate
- resolved
- June 12, 2026
- actual
- -0.1%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published ONS monthly real GDP growth estimate for April 2026 in the GDP monthly estimate release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- ons.gdp.monthly_growth
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 week
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- City economist nowcasts and ONS real-time indicators
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · threshold
- run
- UK indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: ons.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.