Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
UK PAYE payrolled employees, May 2026
What will ONS and HMRC first report as the early estimate of seasonally adjusted UK payrolled employees for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI30.2M
30M30.2M30.3M
history:Jan: 30.3MFeb: 30.3MMar: 30.3MApr: 30.2M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
UK indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T10:32:04+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 30.3M
- forecast
- 30.2M with 80% CI [30M, 30.3M]
- error
- +0.2M · absolute 0.2M
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.094 · PIT 0.90
- source
- ons Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: June 2026
ONS/HMRC early estimates indicated 30.3 million payrolled employees in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- UK indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Employer payroll submissions
- April tax-year revision pattern
- Sector hiring
- Redundancy notices
Resolution
- source
- HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information via ONS labour market release
- resolved
- June 18, 2026
- actual
- 30.3M
- rule
- Resolves to the first published early estimate of seasonally adjusted UK payrolled employees for May 2026 in the ONS/HMRC PAYE RTI release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- HMRC RTI administrative trend
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · labour-market threshold
- run
- UK indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: ons.hmrc.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.