Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
UK public sector net borrowing, May 2026
What will ONS first report as UK public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks in May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI£18.5B
£13B£18.5B£24B
history:Jan: £-14.1BFeb: £10.8BMar: £16.4BApr: £24.3B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
UK indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T10:32:04+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- £23.3B
- forecast
- £18.5B with 80% CI [£13B, £24B]
- error
- +£4.8B · absolute £4.8B
- cdf score
- CRPS 2.83 · PIT 0.85
- source
- ons Public sector finances, UK: May 2026
ONS reported public sector borrowing excluding public sector banks was GBP 23.3 billion in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- UK indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Income tax and VAT receipts
- Inflation-linked benefits
- Debt interest costs
- OBR monthly profile
Resolution
- source
- Office for National Statistics, Public sector finances time series J5II
- resolved
- June 19, 2026
- actual
- £23.3B
- rule
- Resolves to the first official ONS value for May 2026 in Public Sector Finances time series J5II, transformed as -J5II / 1000 so borrowing is positive in GBP billions. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- ons.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks
- cadence
- monthly · ~3 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P1
- benchmark
- OBR monthly profiles and gilt-market expectations
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · debt-to-GDP impact
- run
- UK indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: ons.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.