Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Great Britain retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month
What will ONS first report as the monthly percent change in Great Britain retail sales volumes for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.5%
-0.6%+0.5%+1.6%
history:Feb: -0.8%Mar: +0.6%Apr: -1.3%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
UK indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T10:32:04+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +1.2%
- forecast
- +0.5% with 80% CI [-0.6%, +1.6%]
- error
- +0.7% · absolute +0.7%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.42 · PIT 0.75
- source
- ons Retail sales, Great Britain: May 2026
ONS estimated retail sales volumes rose 1.2% over the month in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- UK indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Weather-sensitive store spending
- Fuel prices and volumes
- Non-food store demand
- Online retail share
Resolution
- source
- Office for National Statistics, Retail sales Great Britain
- resolved
- June 19, 2026
- actual
- +1.2%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published ONS monthly percent change in the quantity bought in all retailing for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- ons.retail_sales.volume_mom
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P1
- benchmark
- Retail footfall and card-spending indicators
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · GDP contribution
- run
- UK indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: ons.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.