Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Unemployment rate, December 2026
What will the seasonally-adjusted U.S. civilian unemployment rate be for December 2026 as published in the BLS Employment Situation release?
current forecast · 80% CI4.3%
3.9%4.3%4.8%
history:Dec 2022: 3.5%Dec 2023: 3.7%Dec 2024: 4.1%Dec 2025: 4.2%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- bls.lns14000000.2026-12
Key drivers
- Fed funds rate path
- Goods-sector labor demand
- Immigration-adjusted labor force growth
- AI-driven displacement vs. productivity
Resolution
- source
- BLS Employment Situation (CES/CPS)
- expected
- January 9, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the first-print seasonally-adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for December 2026, released on the first Friday of January 2027 (subject to revision; first print is the resolution value).
- Data point
- bls.lns14000000.2026-12
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
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▸ recorded source check: fed.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: cbo.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.