Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Unemployment insurance outlays, FY2027
What will federal unemployment insurance benefit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$49B
$32B$49B$78B
history:FY2020: $477BFY2022: $36BFY2024: $34BFY2026e: $42B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- treasury.mts.unemployment_insurance_outlays.fy2027
Key drivers
- Unemployment rate path
- Initial and continued claims
- Average weekly benefit
- Extended-benefit triggers
Resolution
- source
- Monthly Treasury Statement and Department of Labor ETA
- expected
- November 30, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to federal unemployment insurance benefit outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury or Department of Labor fiscal-year table that reports UI benefits.
- Data point
- treasury.mts.unemployment_insurance_outlays.fy2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
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▸ recorded source check: bls.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.