Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Unemployment rate, May 2026
What will the unemployment rate be for May 2026 in the first BLS Employment Situation release?
current forecast · 80% CI4.3%
4.1%4.3%4.5%
history:Jan: 4.3%Feb: 4.4%Mar: 4.3%Apr: 4.3%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 4.3%
- forecast
- 4.3% with 80% CI [4.1%, 4.5%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute 0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.043 · PIT 0.50
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, May 2026
BLS first reported the May 2026 unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Household survey employment
- Labor-force entry
- Temporary-layoff share
- Payroll-hours signal
Resolution
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation first release
- resolved
- June 5, 2026
- actual
- 4.3%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026. Later population-control or seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- bls.cps.unemployment_rate
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 week
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Published consensus survey medians
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · +12 months · threshold
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: bls.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: consensus.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.