Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Uninsured rate (under 65), 2026
What will the uninsured rate among the U.S. population under 65 be for calendar year 2026, as published in the Census ASEC?
current forecast · 80% CI10.1%
9.2%10.1%11.2%
history:2021: 9.6%2022: 8.6%2023: 8.0%2024: 8.2%2025e: 8.9%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2026
Key drivers
- ACA enhanced subsidy status
- Medicaid unwinding completion
- Employer-sponsored coverage trajectory
- ACA marketplace enrollment
Resolution
- source
- Census ASEC health insurance report
- expected
- September 15, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the uninsured rate (any point during the year) for the population under 65 as published in the Census ASEC health insurance coverage report covering CY2026.
- Data point
- census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: cbo.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.