Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
DoD contract obligations, FY2026
What will USAspending report as Department of Defense FY2026 contract obligations in the fixed December 31, 2026 vintage?
current forecast · 80% CI$470B
$405B$470B$535B
history:FY2024: $491.7BFY2025: $446BFY2026 partial: $207.5B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
brier-defense-public-data · 2026-06-29T14:35:00+01:00
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 29, 2026
- agent
- brier-defense-public-data
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded source-context synthesis
- ledger fact
- usaspending.dod.contract_obligations.fy2026.fixed_vintage_2026_12_31
Key drivers
- FY2026 appropriations and continuing-resolution timing
- Fourth-quarter obligation surge
- Major procurement award timing
- DATA Act and FPDS reporting refreshes
Resolution
- source
- USAspending.gov
- expected
- December 31, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to USAspending agency 097 obligations_by_award_category for fiscal_year=2026, category=contracts, aggregated_amount divided by 1 billion dollars, using a data pull on December 31, 2026. This fixed-vintage rule avoids treating later FPDS or DATA Act refreshes as forecast revisions.
- Data point
- usaspending.dod.contract_obligations.fy2026.fixed_vintage_2026_12_31
Series design
- series
- usaspending.dod.contract_obligations
- cadence
- annual · 91 days
- horizon
- fixed post-year vintage · fixed vintage
- priority
- P1
- benchmark
- FY2024-FY2025 final contract obligations and FY2026 partial-year reporting
- chainable
- next fiscal year · quarterly vintage · outlay comparison
- run
- brier-defense-public-data · Codex recorded source-context synthesis · June 29, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
illustrative traceThis trace was authored from source context when the cell was created; the tool calls shown were not executed. Runs from June 28, 2026 onward replay archived activity from the public records.
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▸ illustrative step: usaspending.apiauthored, not executed
▸ illustrative step: usaspending.apiauthored, not executed
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.