Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
DoD military programs gross outlays, June 2026
What will Treasury first report as Department of Defense military programs gross outlays for June 2026 in the Monthly Treasury Statement?
current forecast · 80% CI$72B
$62B$72B$86B
history:Dec 2025: $98.3BJan 2026: $70.7BMar 2026: $65.4BApr 2026: $73.3BMay 2026: $69.2B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
brier-defense-public-data · 2026-06-29T14:35:00+01:00
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 29, 2026
- agent
- brier-defense-public-data
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded source-context synthesis
- ledger fact
- treasury.mts.dod_military_programs_gross_outlays.june_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Quarter-end budget execution
- Procurement and RDT&E payment timing
- Military personnel outlays
- Contract invoice timing
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Treasury Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Monthly Treasury Statement
- expected
- July 13, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to Monthly Treasury Statement table 5 line 5.12, Total--Department of Defense--Military Programs, current-month gross outlays for June 2026, divided by 1 billion dollars. The first published MTS table governs; later revisions or database refreshes do not change the resolved value unless Treasury replaces the first table on the same publication date.
- Data point
- treasury.mts.dod_military_programs_gross_outlays.june_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- treasury.mts.dod_military_programs_gross_outlays
- cadence
- monthly · 13 days
- horizon
- next MTS release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Recent MTS DoD outlays and quarter-end execution seasonality
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · contract-obligation bridge
- run
- brier-defense-public-data · Codex recorded source-context synthesis · June 29, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
illustrative traceThis trace was authored from source context when the cell was created; the tool calls shown were not executed. Runs from June 28, 2026 onward replay archived activity from the public records.
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▸ illustrative step: treasury.fiscaldataauthored, not executed
▸ illustrative step: brier.public_series_inventoryauthored, not executed
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.