Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Disability employment-population ratio, July 2026
What will BLS first report for the not seasonally adjusted employment-population ratio for people with a disability, 16 years and over, in July 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI21.6%
20.9%21.6%22.3%
history:Feb 2026: 22.4%Mar 2026: 22.2%Apr 2026: 21.8%May 2026: 21.7%Jun 2026: 21.8%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-08T20:27:06Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.cps.LNU02374597.2026-07.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent disability EPOP drift lower in early 2026
- July non-seasonally-adjusted month effect usually slightly negative from June
- Soft June labor market and lower overall participation
- High month-to-month CPS sampling noise for disability subgroup
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, Table A-6
- expected
- August 7, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the first BLS Employment Situation Table A-6 print released on Aug. 7, 2026 for July 2026, employment-population ratio for people with a disability, total 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, in percent, rounded to one decimal. The rolling BLS Table A-6 URL is the official table location; resolution should capture the Aug. 7, 2026 first-print artifact when released. Later revisions or historical database updates do not change resolution.
- Data point
- bls.cps.LNU02374597.2026-07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: history.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.