Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US housing starts, May 2026
What will Census and HUD first report as privately owned housing starts in May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?
current forecast · 80% CI1.4M
1.2M1.4M1.6M
history:Jan: 1.4MFeb: 1.3MMar: 1.5MApr: 1.5M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
US near-term public outcomes agent · 2026-06-06T23:38:51+02:00
resolved outcomeoutside 80% interval
- actual
- 1.2M
- forecast
- 1.4M with 80% CI [1.2M, 1.6M]
- error
- -0.2M · absolute 0.2M
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.16 · PIT 0.086
- source
- census New Residential Construction, May 2026
Census/HUD reported privately owned housing starts in May 2026 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,177,000.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- US near-term public outcomes agent
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent run
- ledger fact
- census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Building permits
- Mortgage rates
- Builder sentiment
- Multifamily project timing
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New Residential Construction
- resolved
- June 16, 2026
- actual
- 1.2M
- rule
- Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted annual rate of privately owned housing starts for May 2026 in the New Residential Construction release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- census.housing_starts.saar
- cadence
- monthly · 10 days
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P1
- benchmark
- Housing-starts consensus and permit/backlog indicators
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · single-family split
- run
- US near-term public outcomes agent · Codex recorded agent run · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: census.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: census.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.