Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US industrial production growth, May 2026
What will the Federal Reserve first report as the monthly percent change in total U.S. industrial production for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
-0.5%+0.2%+0.9%
history:Jan: +0.0%Feb: +0.6%Mar: -0.3%Apr: +0.7%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
US near-term public outcomes agent · 2026-06-06T23:38:51+02:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.1%
- forecast
- +0.2% with 80% CI [-0.5%, +0.9%]
- error
- -0.1% · absolute +0.1%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.16 · PIT 0.44
- source
- fed Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17
Federal Reserve G.17 reported industrial production edged up 0.1% in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- US near-term public outcomes agent
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent run
- ledger fact
- fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Manufacturing output and vehicle assemblies
- Utilities output and weather
- Mining and energy production
- Manufacturing survey momentum
Resolution
- source
- Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17
- resolved
- June 15, 2026
- actual
- +0.1%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in the Federal Reserve G.17 total industrial production index for May 2026. Later revisions and the autumn 2026 annual revision do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom
- cadence
- monthly · 8 days
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Manufacturing output, utilities weather effects, and ISM data
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · manufacturing split
- run
- US near-term public outcomes agent · Codex recorded agent run · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: fed.g17.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: fed.g17.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.