Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US 55+ LFPR, July 2026
BLS Current Population Survey labor force participation rate for people age 55 years and over, seasonally adjusted, July 2026 first print
current forecast · 80% CI37.1%
37.0%37.1%37.2%
history:2026-06 latest: 37.1%2026-05: 37.1%2026-04: 37.1%2026-03: 37.2%2026-02: 37.3%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-08T20:24:14Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.cps.lfpr_55_plus.2026-07.first_print
Key drivers
- 55+ participation has flattened at 37.1 for three months
- recent older-worker participation is near a 21-year low
- aggregate June LFPR fell to 61.5
- monthly rounded changes are usually 0.0 or 0.1 percentage point
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, CPS series LNS11324230
- expected
- August 7, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first BLS-published July 2026 value for CPS series LNS11324230, Labor Force Participation Rate - 55 Yrs. & over, seasonally adjusted, in percent, as released in the Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 7, 2026. Use the initially published value rounded to the BLS displayed 0.1 percentage point; ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- bls.cps.lfpr_55_plus.2026-07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: public.history_mirrorhidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.