Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US federal monthly deficit, May 2026
What will Treasury first report as the federal deficit or surplus for May 2026 in the Monthly Treasury Statement?
current forecast · 80% CI$305B
$240B$305B$380B
history:Jan: $94.6BFeb: $307.5BMar: $164.1BApr: $-215BMay 2025: $315.7B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
US near-term public outcomes agent · 2026-06-06T23:38:51+02:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- $292.6B
- forecast
- $305B with 80% CI [$240B, $380B]
- error
- -$12.4B · absolute $12.4B
- cdf score
- CRPS 16.2 · PIT 0.42
- source
- treasury Monthly Treasury Statement, May 2026
May deficit $292.6B (FRED MTSDS133FMS -292,648M; CRFB reports $293B); deficits positive per rule.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- US near-term public outcomes agent
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent run
- ledger fact
- treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Individual income tax receipts
- Refund timing
- Social Security and Medicare outlays
- Debt-interest payments
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Treasury Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Monthly Treasury Statement
- resolved
- June 10, 2026
- actual
- $292.6B
- rule
- Resolves to the May 2026 current-month deficit/surplus amount in Monthly Treasury Statement table 1, divided by 1 billion dollars, with deficits positive and surpluses negative. The first published MTS table governs.
- Data point
- treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- treasury.mts.monthly_deficit
- cadence
- monthly · 4 days
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Daily Treasury Statement and prior-year MTS seasonality
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · outlay category split
- run
- US near-term public outcomes agent · Codex recorded agent run · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: treasury.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: treasury.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.