Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

US PPI final demand inflation, May 2026

What will BLS first report as the seasonally adjusted monthly percent change in the PPI final demand index for May 2026?

current forecast · 80% CI+0.5%
-0.2%+0.5%+1.3%
history:Feb: +0.6%Mar: +0.7%Apr: +1.4%

Trend

history + forecast
-0.50.211.7FebAprJun 2026+0.5%actual +1.1%
historyforecast path80% intervalactual

US near-term public outcomes agent · 2026-06-06T23:38:51+02:00

resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
+1.1%
forecast
+0.5% with 80% CI [-0.2%, +1.3%]
error
+0.6% · absolute +0.6%
cdf score
CRPS 0.34 · PIT 0.80
source
Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index, May 2026

PPI final demand +1.1% MoM SA (FRED PPIFIS 156.011->157.659 = +1.056%); energy/gasoline driven.

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
record
June 6, 2026
agent
US near-term public outcomes agent
distribution
201 CDF points
model
Codex recorded agent run
ledger fact
bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print

Key drivers

  • Energy goods prices
  • Trade-services margins
  • Transportation and warehousing services
  • Input-cost pass-through

Resolution

source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index
resolved
June 11, 2026
actual
+1.1%
rule
Resolves to the first published BLS seasonally adjusted percent change from April 2026 to May 2026 for the PPI final demand index. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
Data point
bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print

Series design

series
bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change
cadence
monthly · 5 days
horizon
next release · first print
priority
P1
benchmark
Economist consensus and CPI/PCE goods-price pass-through
chainable
next release · +3 months · PCE pass-through
run
US near-term public outcomes agent · Codex recorded agent run · June 6, 2026

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

recorded agent run
Recorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay

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recorded source check: bls.lookuphidden
recorded source check: bls.lookuphidden

This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.

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