Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US total business inventories, April 2026
What will Census first report as the seasonally adjusted end-of-month level of U.S. total manufacturing and trade inventories for April 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI$2,725B
$2,716.5B$2,725B$2,732.5B
history:Feb: $2,686.3BMar: $2,709.7B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
US near-term public outcomes agent · 2026-06-06T23:38:51+02:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- $2,726.6B
- forecast
- $2,725B with 80% CI [$2,716.5B, $2,732.5B]
- error
- +$1.6B · absolute $1.6B
- cdf score
- CRPS 1.88 · PIT 0.59
- source
- census Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, April 2026
Census MTIS estimated April 2026 manufacturers and trade inventories at an end-of-month level of $2,726.6 billion.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- US near-term public outcomes agent
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent run
- ledger fact
- census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Retail inventory revisions
- Wholesale inventory trend
- Manufacturers' inventories
- Sales pace and inventory-sales ratio
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales
- resolved
- June 17, 2026
- actual
- $2,726.6B
- rule
- Resolves to the first published preliminary April 2026 value for adjusted total business inventories in Census Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Table 1, expressed in billions of dollars. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level
- cadence
- monthly · 11 days
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P1
- benchmark
- Advance retail inventories, wholesale inventories, and M3 data
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · inventory-sales ratio
- run
- US near-term public outcomes agent · Codex recorded agent run · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: census.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: census.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.