PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
Refundable AOTC outlays, TY2026
What will federal refundable American Opportunity Tax Credit outlays be for tax year 2026, in nominal dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$6.2B
$4.8B$6.2B$7.8B
history:TY2019: $5.6BTY2021: $5.9BTY2023: $5.8BTY2025e: $6B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
Key drivers
- College enrollment
- Tuition and qualified expenses
- Refundability cap
- Income phase-outs
Resolution
- source
- IRS Statistics of Income and Treasury tax expenditure tables
- expected
- August 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to refundable American Opportunity Tax Credit outlays for TY2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS SOI or Treasury table that separately identifies the refundable AOTC amount.
- Policy parameter
- gov.irs.credits.education.american_opportunity.refundable
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: irs.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.