PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
CTC outlays under current law, TY2026
What will federal Child Tax Credit outlays be for tax year 2026 under current law, in nominal dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$60.5B
$52B$60.5B$70B
history:TY2021: $150BTY2022: $68BTY2024: $59BTY2025e: $61B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
opening live stream
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
Key drivers
- Qualifying-child population
- Refundable portion and phase-in
- Filing and take-up behavior
- Income distribution around phase-outs
Resolution
- source
- IRS Statistics of Income and Treasury tax expenditure tables
- expected
- August 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to federal outlays/refundable-credit cost attributable to the Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS/Treasury table that separately identifies the CTC.
- Policy parameter
- gov.irs.credits.ctc
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
streamingLive API pathThis cell is opening a server-sent reasoning stream. If the API is unavailable, the page falls back to the static mock trace.
opening live stream
Opening live analyst stream…
Live mode queries the PolicyEngine current-law policy, applies an explicit CTC outlay calibration prior, and streams the adjustment path. If the API fails, the page replays the static trace.