PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
Cost of a $3,000 fully refundable CTC, TY2026
What will official scorers estimate as the federal budget cost of a $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026, relative to current law?
current forecast · 80% CI$109.6B
$78.8B$109.6B$140.4B
history:PE prior: $102BCalibrated: $109.6B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
opening live stream
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
Key drivers
- PolicyEngine raw economy impact
- Official-score calibration
- Refundability and phase-in design
- Eligible child population and filing behavior
Resolution
- source
- Joint Committee on Taxation or Congressional Budget Office
- expected
- December 31, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the first official JCT or CBO estimate, in billions of nominal dollars, for the tax-year 2026 federal budget effect of a materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit scored against current law.
- Policy parameter
- gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.fully_refundable
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
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