PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
RBA cash rate target, June 2026
What will the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target be immediately after the monetary policy decision updated on June 16, 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI4.35%
4.35%4.35%4.6%
history:May: 4.35%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T11:36:25+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 4.35%
- forecast
- 4.35% with 80% CI [4.35%, 4.6%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute 0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.027 · PIT 2.4e-7
- source
- rba Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision
Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% at its June 16, 2026 meeting.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026
Key drivers
- April CPI at 4.2%
- Trimmed mean above target
- April unemployment at 4.5%
- June Board communication
Resolution
- source
- Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target
- resolved
- June 16, 2026
- actual
- 4.35%
- rule
- Resolves to the RBA cash rate target shown in the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target update on June 16, 2026. If the RBA posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.
- Data point
- rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026
- Policy parameter
- rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026
Series design
- series
- rba.cash_rate_target
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- next decision · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Market-implied cash-rate path and economist calls
- chainable
- next decision · +3 months · inflation reaction
- run
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: rba.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.