PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
Bank of Canada overnight rate, June 2026
What will the Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate be immediately after its June 10, 2026 interest rate announcement?
current forecast · 80% CI2.25%
2.0%2.25%2.25%
history:Jan: 2.25%Mar: 2.25%Apr: 2.25%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T11:36:25+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 2.25%
- forecast
- 2.25% with 80% CI [2.0%, 2.25%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute 0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.076 · PIT 1.0
- source
- bank_of_canada Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, June 2026
BoC held overnight rate target at 2.25% (5th consecutive hold); matched recorded point.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026
Key drivers
- April CPI acceleration
- Rising unemployment rate
- GDP advance estimate
- Bank of Canada fixed announcement cadence
Resolution
- source
- Bank of Canada interest rate announcement
- resolved
- June 10, 2026
- actual
- 2.25%
- rule
- Resolves to the target for the overnight rate stated in the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement on June 10, 2026. If the Bank posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.
- Data point
- bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026
- Policy parameter
- bank_of_canada.overnight_rate_target.after_june_2026
Series design
- series
- bank_of_canada.overnight_rate_target
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 week
- horizon
- next decision · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Overnight-index-swap pricing and economist calls
- chainable
- next decision · +3 months · inflation reaction
- run
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: bank_of_canada.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.