PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
EITC outlays, TY2026
What will federal Earned Income Tax Credit outlays be for tax year 2026, in nominal dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$74B
$65B$74B$84B
history:TY2021: $63BTY2022: $60BTY2024: $69BTY2025e: $72B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
Key drivers
- Low-wage employment
- Number of qualifying children
- Self-employment income reporting
- Indexation of credit schedules
Resolution
- source
- IRS Statistics of Income and Treasury tax expenditure tables
- expected
- August 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to federal outlays/refundable-credit cost attributable to the Earned Income Tax Credit for tax year 2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS/Treasury table that separately identifies the EITC.
- Policy parameter
- gov.irs.credits.eitc
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: irs.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.