PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026
What will the ECB deposit facility rate be immediately after the monetary policy decisions published on June 11, 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI2.0%
2.0%2.0%2.25%
history:Mar: 2.0%Apr: 2.0%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-06T05:41:31+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 2.25%
- forecast
- 2.0% with 80% CI [2.0%, 2.25%]
- error
- +0.25% · absolute 0.25%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.13 · PIT 0.90
- source
- ecb ECB monetary policy decisions, June 2026
ECB raised all key rates 25bp; deposit facility rate 2.25% (eff. 17 Jun); recorded point was 2.0.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026
Key drivers
- May flash HICP at 3.2%
- Energy-price shock and services inflation
- April decision to hold rates
- June staff macroeconomic projections
Resolution
- source
- European Central Bank monetary policy decisions
- resolved
- June 11, 2026
- actual
- 2.25%
- rule
- Resolves to the deposit facility rate stated in the ECB monetary policy decisions published on June 11, 2026. If the ECB posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.
- Data point
- ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026
- Policy parameter
- ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026
Series design
- series
- ecb.deposit_facility_rate
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 week
- horizon
- next decision · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Market-implied euro short-rate path and analyst consensus
- chainable
- next decision · +3 months · inflation reaction
- run
- Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: ecb.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.