Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SPM child poverty rate, 2025
What will the Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?
current forecast · 80% CI13.1%
12.0%13.1%14.4%
history:2021: 5.2%2022: 12.4%2023: 13.7%2024: 13.4%
opening live stream
Key drivers
- CTC and EITC current-law parameters
- 2025 labor-market strength
- Shelter and medical out-of-pocket costs
- SNAP and school-meals resources
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2025
- expected
- September 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the official SPM child poverty rate (children under 18) for calendar year 2025 in the Census Poverty in the United States report, expected in September 2026. If Census publishes multiple SPM variants, this uses the main published SPM table.
- Data point
- census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2025
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
streamingLive API pathThis cell is opening a server-sent reasoning stream. If the API is unavailable, the page falls back to the static mock trace.
opening live stream
Opening live analyst stream…
Live mode checks public Census release/SPM pages, verifies the PolicyEngine current-law policy, applies an explicit child-poverty calibration prior, and calls the forecast model when AI Gateway credentials are available. If the API fails, the page replays the static trace.