PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.

HHS poverty guideline, family of four, 2027

What will the 2027 HHS poverty guideline be for a four-person household in the 48 contiguous states and DC?

current forecast · 80% CI$33,920
$33,520$33,920$34,480
history:2024: $31,2002025: $32,1502026: $33,000

Trend

history + forecast
$30,680$32,120$33,560$35,00020242026Jan 2027$33,920
historyforecast path80% interval

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
record
prototype seed
agent
prototype seed
distribution
201 CDF points
ledger fact
hhs.aspe.poverty_guideline.household_size_4.48dc.2027

Key drivers

  • Calendar-year CPI-U
  • Census poverty threshold base
  • ASPE rounding
  • Household-size simplification

Resolution

source
HHS ASPE poverty guidelines
expected
January 31, 2027
rule
Resolves to ASPE's first posted 2027 poverty guideline table for four-person households in the 48 contiguous states and DC. Later errata do not change the resolved value unless ASPE withdraws the first table before it takes effect.
Data point
hhs.aspe.poverty_guideline.household_size_4.48dc.2027
Policy parameter
hhs.poverty_guideline.household_size_4.48_states_dc.2027

Series design

series
hhs.aspe.poverty_guideline_4person_48dc
cadence
annual · ~7 months
horizon
next release · first print
priority
P1
benchmark
CPI-U-based poverty guideline computation
chainable
next release · threshold · program eligibility

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay

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recorded source check: hhs.aspe.lookuphidden

The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

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