PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026
What will the Bank of Japan guideline for the uncollateralized overnight call rate be immediately after its June 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
current forecast · 80% CI0.75%
0.75%0.75%1.0%
history:Jan: 0.75%Mar: 0.75%Apr: 0.75%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-06T05:41:31+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 1.0%
- forecast
- 0.75% with 80% CI [0.75%, 1.0%]
- error
- +0.25% · absolute 0.25%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.13 · PIT 0.90
- source
- boj Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations
Bank of Japan decided the guideline would encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain around 1.0%, effective June 17, 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026
Key drivers
- April 6-3 vote split
- Upside price-risk dissents
- June JGB purchase-plan assessment
- Tokyo and national CPI path
Resolution
- source
- Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy
- resolved
- June 16, 2026
- actual
- 1.0%
- rule
- Resolves to the guideline for money market operations stated in the Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy released after the June 15-16, 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting. If the Bank posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.
- Data point
- boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026
- Policy parameter
- boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026
Series design
- series
- boj.policy_rate_guideline
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- next decision · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Policy Board vote split and market-implied yen rate path
- chainable
- next decision · +3 months · inflation reaction
- run
- Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: boj.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.