thesisPrototype
calibrationprediction pack · v0.1.0

Release-vintage calibration

Calibrates uncertainty to first-print release behavior rather than revised historical series alone.

24
runs
24
targets
2
agents
1
versions

Purpose

Calibrate forecast uncertainty to first-publication behavior, not only later revised time series.

Mechanism

  • Identify the first-print release surface for the target.
  • Compare revised series volatility with first-print surprise behavior.
  • Apply rounding and publication-grid checks where the source reports rounded values.

Checks

  • The run states that the first print governs resolution.
  • The trace distinguishes release rounding from underlying economic uncertainty.
  • The final interval is not narrower than historical first-print noise supports.

Inputs

  • Official release schedule
  • Resolved first-print observations
  • Historical revision or rounding behavior

Limitations

  • Prototype calibration uses coarse first-print history.
  • Does not yet model source-specific embargo or publication delays.

Versions

v0.1.0release-vintage-calibration@0.1.024 runs

Runs using this pack

Australia May CPI pack set, Australia May labour pack set, Canada May CPI pack set, June core CPI pack set, June labor-market pack set, June monthly CPI pack set, June weekly claims pack set, May BEA personal-income pack set, May BEA social-benefits pack set, May JOLTS labor pack set, May core PCE bridge pack set, May housing starts pack set, May retail sales pack set
Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print)
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - labor packs
pack_set.labor_june_2026.v1pack-enabled
150k
+25k vs no-pack

Pack-enabled run with labor-market momentum and first-print calibration.

80% interval 35k to 260k
Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print)
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - labor packs
pack_set.labor_june_2026.v1pack-enabled
4.3%
matches no-pack control

Pack-enabled run cross-checking unemployment persistence against payrolls and claims.

80% interval 4.1% to 4.5%
CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - CPI energy packs
pack_set.cpi_monthly_june_2026.v1pack-enabled
+0.5%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Pack-enabled headline CPI run with energy nowcast, component decomposition, and tariff tail checks.

80% interval +0.1% to 0.8%
Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - core CPI packs
pack_set.core_cpi_monthly_june_2026.v1pack-enabled
+0.3%
+0.0% vs no-pack

Pack-enabled core CPI run using component checks and tariff pass-through tails.

80% interval +0.1% to 0.5%
Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - spending packs
pack_set.retail_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
+0.3%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Pack-enabled run using consumer-spending nowcast and release-vintage checks.

80% interval -0.3% to 0.8%
US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions)
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - housing packs
pack_set.housing_starts_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
1.5M
+0.1M vs no-pack

Pack-enabled run using permits, mortgage-rate, builder-sentiment, and preliminary-release checks.

80% interval 1.3M to 1.6M
JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print)
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - JOLTS packs
pack_set.jolts_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
7.4M
+0.2M vs no-pack

Pack-enabled run using payroll, claims, openings, and JOLTS release-noise checks.

80% interval 7M to 7.8M
Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.canada_cpi_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
2.7%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 2.1% to 3.4%
Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.canada_cpi_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
2.7%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 2.1% to 3.3%
Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.australia_cpi_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
4.6%
+0.4% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 3.8% to 5.4%
Australia employment change, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.australia_labor_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
20k
+10k vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval -35k to 85k
Australia unemployment rate, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.australia_labor_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
4.5%
matches no-pack control

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 4.2% to 4.8%
Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.core_pce_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
+0.3%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval +0.1% to 0.4%
US disposable personal income, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.bea_personal_income_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
$23,520B
+$20B vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval $23,445B to $23,620B
US government social benefits, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.bea_social_benefits_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
$4,998B
+$8B vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval $4,950B to $5,055B
US Medicaid benefits, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.bea_social_benefits_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
$1,041B
+$3B vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval $1,025B to $1,060B
US Medicare benefits, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.bea_social_benefits_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
$1,332B
+$2B vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval $1,320B to $1,344B
US personal current taxes, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.bea_personal_income_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
$3,268B
+$6B vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval $3,248B to $3,301B
US Social Security benefits, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.bea_social_benefits_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
$1,651B
+$1B vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval $1,640B to $1,663B
US wages and salaries, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.bea_personal_income_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
$13,362B
+$17B vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval $13,315B to $13,410B