PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
Revenue cost of a $40k SALT cap, TY2027
If the SALT deduction cap is set at $40,000 for joint filers in tax year 2027, what will the federal individual income tax revenue loss be relative to a $10,000 cap?
current forecast · 80% CI$38B
$25B$38B$55B
history:$10k cap: $0B$20k est.: $18B$40k est.: $38Bno cap est.: $93B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
Key drivers
- High-income itemizer distribution
- State and local tax growth
- Interaction with AMT and standard deduction
- Behavioral response in state tax planning
Resolution
- source
- Joint Committee on Taxation or Congressional Budget Office
- expected
- December 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to the first official JCT or CBO estimate of the federal individual-income-tax revenue loss, in billions of nominal dollars, from raising the TY2027 joint SALT cap from $10,000 to $40,000 under otherwise comparable law.
- Policy parameter
- irc.164.b.6.cap_joint.2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: jct.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.