PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
SALT deduction cap, TY2027
What will the maximum federal state-and-local tax deduction (for joint filers) be in tax year 2027?
current forecast · 80% CI$22,000
$10,000$22,000$80,000
history:Pre-TCJA: $100,000TCJA cap: $10,0002024: $10,0002025: $10,000
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
Key drivers
- TCJA extension package details
- Blue-state House Republican leverage
- Joint Committee scoring constraints
Resolution
- source
- Internal Revenue Code §164(b)(6)
- expected
- December 31, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the cap on the deduction for state and local taxes under IRC §164(b)(6) applicable to joint filers in TY2027. If no cap is in force, resolves at the projected average itemizer SALT amount in the SOI distribution (functionally 'no cap').
- Policy parameter
- irc.164.b.6.cap_joint.2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: axiom.queryhidden
▸ recorded source check: axiom.queryhidden
▸ recorded source check: axiom.queryhidden
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.