PolicyForecast cell on a formal policy setting or encoded parameter.
Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC
What will Bank Rate be immediately after the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision published on June 18, 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI3.75%
3.75%3.75%4.0%
history:Feb: 3.75%Mar: 3.75%Apr: 3.75%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
UK indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T10:32:04+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 3.75%
- forecast
- 3.75% with 80% CI [3.75%, 4.0%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute 0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.027 · PIT 2.4e-7
- source
- boe Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - June 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% after the June 2026 MPC decision.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- UK indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- CPI and services inflation
- Energy-price shock risk
- Labour-market loosening
- MPC vote split
Resolution
- source
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee summary and minutes
- resolved
- June 18, 2026
- actual
- 3.75%
- rule
- Resolves to the Bank Rate stated in the Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary and minutes published on June 18, 2026. If the Bank publishes a correction the same day before market close, the corrected value governs.
- Data point
- boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print
- Policy parameter
- boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026
Series design
- series
- boe.bank_rate
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- next decision · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- MPC vote split and market-implied policy rate
- chainable
- next decision · +3 months · inflation reaction
- run
- UK indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: boe.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.