Thesis Log · prediction records
Thesis Log
Thesis Log records predictions, distributions, trace metadata, resolution events, and scores. Resolved predictions reference facts in the PolicyEngine Ledger. The machine-readable v3 surface is a compact manifest whose hash-verified chunks preserve every full entry, spec, run, and score.
predictions
1274
specs
829
runs
1274
resolved
203
pending
626
scored / coverage
261 · 77%
scoring
Scoreboard
mean nCRPS
11560433379694
lower is better
mean CRPS
11.6
raw units
mean abs error
14.6
raw units
80% coverage
77%
target: 80%
By agent
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thesis.analyst | 462 | 134 | 10118228728502 | 10.8 | 75% |
| brier-1.shadow | 30 | 30 | n/a | 12.0 | 87% |
| US near-term public outcomes agent | 16 | 16 | n/a | 10.7 | 75% |
| brier-1.packed | 13 | 9 | n/a | 6.68 | 56% |
| Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble | 9 | 9 | n/a | 9.57 | 67% |
| scout-2.control | 9 | 9 | n/a | 5.68 | 78% |
| brier.time_series_prior | 8 | 8 | 13002638030885 | 6.11 | 50% |
| Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble | 8 | 8 | n/a | 0.095 | 100% |
| Global near-term indicator source synthesis | 8 | 8 | n/a | 1.75 | 100% |
| UK indicator agent ensemble | 10 | 7 | n/a | 0.53 | 100% |
| brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy | 6 | 6 | n/a | 129 | 100% |
| thesis.analyst.median3 | 25 | 5 | n/a | 0.83 | 40% |
| thesis.analyst.ladder | 19 | 5 | n/a | 0.69 | 40% |
| brier-defense-public-data | 5 | 3 | n/a | 2.55 | 100% |
| Three-agent CPI ensemble | 2 | 2 | n/a | 0.048 | 100% |
| github:khs::Claude Opus 5 (Claude Code) | 1 | 1 | n/a | 0.039 | 100% |
| github:PavelMakarchuk::Claude Fable 5 (pavel onboarding agent) | 1 | 1 | n/a | 0.060 | 100% |
| prototype seed | 313 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS OEWS current table | 132 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-occupation-wage-pressure | 132 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 | 26 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS Employment Projections | 12 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-occupation-automation-scenarios | 12 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-occupation-projection | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Occupation automation exposure source synthesis | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-1.control | 3 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
By model
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gpt-5.5 | 346 | 122 | 14165520219902 | 10.8 | 74% |
| gpt-5 | 39 | 39 | n/a | 10.8 | 79% |
| Codex recorded agent runs | 27 | 24 | n/a | 3.77 | 88% |
| Codex recorded source-context synthesis | 175 | 17 | n/a | 46.9 | 100% |
| claude-fable-5 | 21 | 17 | n/a | 3.60 | 82% |
| Codex recorded agent run | 16 | 16 | n/a | 10.7 | 75% |
| gpt-5-mini | 9 | 9 | n/a | 5.68 | 78% |
| persistence.last_print | 8 | 8 | 13002638030885 | 6.11 | 50% |
| gpt-5.6-sol | 67 | 5 | 2.35 | 14.5 | 20% |
| Codex recorded agent ensemble | 2 | 2 | n/a | 0.048 | 100% |
| Claude Fable 5 (pavel onboarding agent) | 1 | 1 | n/a | 0.060 | 100% |
| Claude Opus 5 (Claude Code) | 1 | 1 | n/a | 0.039 | 100% |
| unreported model | 313 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5-codex | 54 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.6-terra | 30 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.6-luna | 11 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.4 | 7 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS 2024-2034 projection release | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| damped_log_trend_v1 + Brier component check | 2 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.6 | 1 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
By run type
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% | next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | 1057 | 207 | 11560433379694 | 8.64 | 76% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| No packs | 177 | 30 | n/a | 34.1 | 87% | Sep 15, 2026 |
| With packs | 40 | 24 | n/a | 9.38 | 75% | Sep 15, 2026 |
Best nCRPS
| prediction | run | nCRPS | error | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 | Headline Primary gpt-5.5 | 0.42 | +8k | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 0.53 | -7k | inside |
| US initial jobless claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01 | Headline Primary gpt-5.5 | 0.55 | -7k | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 | Headline Primary gpt-5.5 | 0.62 | -8k | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 0.62 | +12k | inside |
Largest nCRPS
| prediction | run | nCRPS | error | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 91018466216188 | -0M | outside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print | Headline Primary gpt-5.5 | 70827601099508 | -0M | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 4.00 | +0M | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 3.00 | -28k | outside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print | Headline Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.98 | +0M | inside |
production contract
Specs in, immutable runs out
spec
829 prediction specs
Question, unit, Ledger target ref, allowed tools, CDF schema, and quality gates.
runner
thesis.recorded-agent-runner
Turns a spec, tool context, and optional pack set into one or more public traces, 201-point CDFs, and run records.
store
Thesis Log
Stores prediction runs and scores; observed facts stay in PolicyEngine Ledger.
Resolution queue
626 pending · next 12 shownUnited States
resolves
Jul 11, 2026
estimate
6.7M
DoD military programs gross outlays, June 2026
United Statestreasury.mts.dod_military_programs_gross_outlays.june_2026.first_print
U.S. Treasury Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Monthly Treasury Statement
resolves
Jul 13, 2026
estimate
$72B
U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS)
United Statestreasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement (Table 1)
resolves
Jul 13, 2026
estimate
$25B
UK claimant count, June 2026
United Kingdomons.labour.claimant_count.2026_06.first_print
Office for National Statistics, CLA01: Claimant Count and Vacancies
resolves
Jul 14, 2026
estimate
1.73m
US Real Avg Hourly Earnings MoM, Jun 2026
United Statesbls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-06.first_print
resolves
Jul 14, 2026
estimate
0.1%
US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026
United Statesbls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index news release
resolves
Jul 15, 2026
estimate
+0.7%
UK Construction Output Growth, May 2026
United Kingdomons.outputintheconstructionindustryallworksummary.total_construction_output_mom_sa.2026-05.first_print
resolves
Jul 16, 2026
estimate
+0.1%
UK Index of Services May 2026
United Kingdomons.ios.total_services_cvmsa_index.2026-05.first_print
Office for National Statistics Index of Services, UK: May 2026
resolves
Jul 16, 2026
estimate
+104.7
UK manufacturing output index, May 2026
United Kingdomons.iop.manufacturing_cvmsa_index.2026-05.first_print
Office for National Statistics Index of Production, UK: May 2026 and DIOP time series K22A
resolves
Jul 16, 2026
estimate
+101.6
US advance retail sales monthly change, June 2026
United Statescensus.marts.adv44x72.monthly_change.2026-06.first_print
U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release
resolves
Jul 16, 2026
estimate
+0.3%
Belgium consumer confidence, July 2026
Euro areanbb.consumer_confidence.indicator.2026-07.first_print
resolves
Jul 20, 2026
estimate
-8.4
Euro-area construction production, May 2026
Euro areaeurostat.construction.production_index.2026_05.first_print
Eurostat Production in construction release and sts_copr_m data table
resolves
Jul 20, 2026
estimate
+105.7
Recorded predictions
1274 rows · 201-point CDFs| prediction | geo | recorded | agent / model | activity | packs | estimate | 80% interval | cdf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPM child poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 13.1% | 12.0% to 14.4% | 201 points |
| SPM child poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2025 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 13.4% | 11.7% to 15.4% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.4% | 9.8% to 11.1% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Control · cash trend | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.control gpt-5.4 | trace only | No packs none | 10.6% | 9.7% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Brier-1 · Census cash-income packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | Census official-poverty pack set Base-rate-first, Cash-income bridge, ASEC release calibration | 10.3% | 9.7% to 11.0% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 11.0% | 10.3% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2025 census.asec.median_household_income.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $80,600 | $78,600 to $82,900 | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2025 census.asec.median_household_income.2025 Control · trend nowcast | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.control gpt-5.4 | trace only | No packs none | $80,100 | $77,500 to $83,300 | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2025 census.asec.median_household_income.2025 Brier-1 · ASEC income packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | ASEC income pack set Base-rate-first, ASEC income nowcast, ASEC release calibration | $80,800 | $78,900 to $82,900 | 201 points |
| SPM child poverty rate, 2027 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 10.5% to 13.4% | 201 points |
| SPM child poverty rate, 2027 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 14.2% | 11.5% to 17.4% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, December 2026 bls.lns14000000.2026-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 4.3% | 3.9% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 2.6% | 2.1% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Control · no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.control gpt-5.4 | trace only | No packs none | 2.5% | 1.9% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Brier-1 · CPI packs · Jun 12 | United States | 2026-06-12 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | CPI annual-average pack set Base-rate-first, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through | 2.6% | 2.0% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Brier-1 · CPI packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | CPI annual-average pack set Base-rate-first, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2026 census.asec.median_household_income.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $81,200 | $79,100 to $83,400 | 201 points |
| Federal individual income tax revenue, FY2027 treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,740 | $2,580 to $2,910 | 201 points |
| Real GDP growth, 2026 (Q4/Q4) bea.gdpc1.q4q4.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +1.9% | +0.9% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| Uninsured rate (under 65), 2026 census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.1% | 9.2% to 11.2% | 201 points |
| Labor force participation rate, December 2026 bls.lns11300000.2026-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 62.4% | 61.9% to 62.8% | 201 points |
| CTC monthly maximum per child, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $183/mo | $83/mo to $250/mo | 201 points |
| Cost of a $3,000 fully refundable CTC, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $109.6B | $78.8B to $140.4B | 201 points |
| CTC outlays under current law, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $60.5B | $52B to $70B | 201 points |
| EITC outlays, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $74B | $65B to $84B | 201 points |
| Revenue cost of a $40k SALT cap, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $38B | $25B to $55B | 201 points |
| Federal minimum wage on Jan 1, 2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $7.25 | $7.25 to $9.50 | 201 points |
| Standard deduction, joint filers, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $32,000 | $16,000 to $35,000 | 201 points |
| Top individual income tax rate, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 37.0% | 37.0% to 39.6% | 201 points |
| SALT deduction cap, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $22,000 | $10,000 to $80,000 | 201 points |
| SNAP maximum allotment, family of 4, FY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,010 | $975.00 to $1,045 | 201 points |
| SNAP benefit outlays, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.benefit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $128B | $116B to $143B | 201 points |
| ACA premium tax credit outlays, FY2027 treasury.mts.aca_premium_tax_credit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $94B | $62B to $132B | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2027 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82M | 77M to 88M | 201 points |
| SPM poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.all_people_poverty_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 12.7% | 12.0% to 13.5% | 201 points |
| SPM poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.all_people_poverty_rate.2025 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 12.6% | 11.6% to 13.8% | 201 points |
| Unemployment insurance outlays, FY2027 treasury.mts.unemployment_insurance_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $49B | $32B to $78B | 201 points |
| SSI federal payments, FY2027 ssa.ssi.federal_payments.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $75B | $68B to $84B | 201 points |
| Federal Medicaid outlays, FY2027 cms.medicaid.federal_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $655B | $600B to $720B | 201 points |
| Children receiving the CTC, TY2026 irs.soi.ctc.qualifying_children.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 48M | 45M to 51M | 201 points |
| Housing Choice Voucher outlays, FY2027 hud.hcv.outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $36B | $32B to $42B | 201 points |
| Federal payroll tax receipts, FY2027 treasury.mts.social_insurance_receipts.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,860B | $1,760B to $1,985B | 201 points |
| Social Security OASDI benefit outlays, FY2027 ssa.oasdi.benefit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,605B | $1,540B to $1,685B | 201 points |
| Refundable AOTC outlays, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $6.2B | $4.8B to $7.8B | 201 points |
| WIC average monthly participation, FY2027 usda.fns.wic.average_monthly_participation.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.9M | 6.3M to 7.6M | 201 points |
| National School Lunch participation, SY2026-27 usda.fns.nslp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 30.4M | 28.8M to 32.3M | 201 points |
| ACA exchange plan selections, OEP 2027 cms.aca.exchange_qhp_selections.oep_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 19.8M | 14M to 25M | 201 points |
| Medicare benefit outlays, FY2027 cms.medicare.benefit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,110B | $1,035B to $1,210B | 201 points |
| TANF federal outlays, FY2027 acf.tanf.federal_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $17B | $15B to $19.5B | 201 points |
| Child Care and Development Fund outlays, FY2027 acf.ccdf.outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $12.5B | $9B to $17B | 201 points |
| Estate and gift tax receipts, FY2027 treasury.mts.estate_gift_tax_receipts.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $45B | $28B to $72B | 201 points |
| EITC claimant returns, TY2027 irs.soi.eitc_claimant_returns.ty2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 23.4M | 21.6M to 25.5M | 201 points |
| Corporate income tax receipts, FY2027 treasury.mts.corporation_income_tax_receipts.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $570B | $430B to $730B | 201 points |
| SNAP average monthly participation, FY2027 fns.snap.average_monthly_persons.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 40.6M | 37.4M to 44.1M | 201 points |
| Pell Grant recipients, award year 2027-28 ed.pell.recipients.award_year_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.2M | 6.4M to 8.2M | 201 points |
| Head Start funded enrollment, FY2027 acf.head_start.funded_enrollment.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 0.8M | 0.7M to 0.9M | 201 points |
| TANF average monthly families, FY2027 acf.tanf.average_monthly_families.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 0.7M | 0.6M to 0.9M | 201 points |
| CCDF average monthly children served, FY2027 acf.ccdf.average_monthly_children_served.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 1.4M | 1.1M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| LIHEAP households assisted, FY2027 acf.liheap.households_assisted.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.1M | 3.4M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| School Breakfast participation, SY2026-27 fns.sbp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.2M | 14M to 16.7M | 201 points |
| SSI recipients, December 2027 ssa.ssi.recipients.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.4M | 7.1M to 7.7M | 201 points |
| SNAP average monthly households, FY2027 fns.snap.average_monthly_households.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 21.7M | 19.8M to 23.8M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP child enrollment, December 2027 cms.medicaid_chip.child_enrollment.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 36.8M | 34.5M to 39.4M | 201 points |
| Housing Choice Voucher households leased, December 2027 hud.hcv.households_leased.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 2.3M | 2.2M to 2.5M | 201 points |
| School Breakfast federal outlays, FY2027 fns.sbp.federal_cost.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $6.7B | $5.8B to $7.8B | 201 points |
| Child support distributed collections, FY2027 acf.ocss.distributed_collections.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $27.8B | $25B to $31B | 201 points |
| Federal Pell Grant outlays, FY2027 ed.pell.outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $34.5B | $28B to $43B | 201 points |
| WIC federal outlays, FY2027 usda.fns.wic.federal_cost.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $8.5B | $7.2B to $10B | 201 points |
| LIHEAP federal funding, FY2027 acf.liheap.federal_funding.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $4.1B | $2.4B to $6.8B | 201 points |
| OASDI beneficiaries, December 2027 ssa.oasdi.beneficiaries.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 70M | 68.8M to 71.4M | 201 points |
| Child and dependent care credit returns, TY2026 irs.soi.child_dependent_care_credit_returns.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.9M | 5M to 7M | 201 points |
| Premium tax credit claimant returns, TY2026 irs.soi.premium_tax_credit_claimant_returns.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.8M | 7.4M to 15.2M | 201 points |
| Additional Child Tax Credit returns, TY2026 irs.soi.additional_child_tax_credit_returns.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 16.2M | 13.2M to 19.6M | 201 points |
| Itemized charitable contributions, TY2026 irs.soi.itemized_charitable_contributions.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $305B | $245B to $375B | 201 points |
| Medicare total enrollment, December 2027 cms.medicare.total_beneficiaries.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 70.7M | 69.2M to 72.3M | 201 points |
| Retired-worker average benefit, December 2027 ssa.oasdi.retired_worker_average_benefit.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,190/mo | $2,110/mo to $2,285/mo | 201 points |
| Refundable CTC amount, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,800 | $1,000 to $2,500 | 201 points |
| Maximum EITC, 3+ children, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $8,500 | $8,050 to $9,100 | 201 points |
| SNAP average benefit per person, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.average_benefit_per_person.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $232/mo | $216/mo to $252/mo | 201 points |
| ACA PTC average subsidy per enrollee, FY2027 cms.marketplace.ptc.average_subsidy_per_enrollee.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $690/mo | $560/mo to $860/mo | 201 points |
| Initial jobless claims, week ending Jun 6 2026 dol.eta.initial_claims.sa.week_ending_2026_06_06 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 214k | 197k to 233k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payrolls, May 2026 bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85k | -60k to 220k | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, May 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Headline CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | Three-agent CPI ensemble Codex recorded agent ensemble | trace only | unreported | +0.5% | +0.3% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | -0.5% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.1% | -0.7% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Brier-1 - spending packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May retail sales pack set Base-rate first, Consumer-spending nowcast, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | -0.3% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May core PCE bridge pack set Base-rate first, PCE-CPI bridge, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, Apr 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.april_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 40.8M | 39.5M to 42.2M | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, Apr 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.april_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 39.8M | 38.4M to 41.2M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Apr 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.april_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.1M | 76.2M to 82.6M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Apr 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.april_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 74.2M | 72.7M to 75.6M | 201 points |
| UK regular pay growth, May-Jul 2026 ons.earnings.regular_pay_yoy.2026_07.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-19 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.5% | 3.1% to 3.9% | 201 points |
| UK Vacancies, AP2Y, 2026 JUL ons.labour.vacancies_total.2026_07.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-19 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 703k | 692k to 714k | 201 points |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 22, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22 Headline | United States | 2026-08-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 207k | 188k to 226k | 201 points |
| US Continued Claims, Week Ending 2026-08-22 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.7M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US private nonresidential fixed investment, Q3 2026 bea.private_nonresidential_fixed_investment.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $4,710B | $4,630B to $4,790B | 201 points |
| US private R&D fixed investment, Q3 2026 bea.research_and_development_fixed_investment.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $964B | $934B to $994B | 201 points |
| US CRP enrolled acres, September 2027, 27m ceiling usda.fsa.crp.enrolled_acres_total.2027_09.first_print.ceiling_27_million_source_recovered_2026_08_13 Headline | United States | 2026-08-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 26,650,000 | 26,250,000 to 26,950,000 | 201 points |
| US CRP enrolled acres, Sep 2027, no FY2027-31 ceiling usda.fsa.crp.enrolled_acres_total.2027_09.first_print.no_fy2027_31_ceiling_source_recovered_2026_08_13 Headline | United States | 2026-08-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 26,182,019 | 25,198,516 to 27,165,522 | 201 points |
| U.S. natural gas vented and flared, 2025 eia.ng.vented_flared.us.annual.2025.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-14 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 335,163 MMcf | 206,110 MMcf to 464,216 MMcf | 201 points |
| DoD FY2027 prime award obligations if FY2027 NDAA enacted usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.2027.registered_query_snapshot.fy27_ndaa_enacted Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 545.3 | 495.4 to 595.2 | 201 points |
| Belgium consumer confidence, August 2026 nbb.consumer_confidence.indicator.2026-08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -5.0 | -11.0 to 1.0 | 201 points |
| US computer and mathematical employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.8M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US office and administrative support employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 16.5M | 16.1M to 16.8M | 201 points |
| DoD prime award obligations FY2027, no FY27 NDAA usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.2027.registered_query_snapshot.no_fy27_ndaa Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 493.5 | 436.9 to 550.1 | 201 points |
| US healthcare support employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 5.8M | 5.5M to 6.1M | 201 points |
| US CPS production occupations employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 8M | 7.7M to 8.2M | 201 points |
| US transportation and material-moving employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 12.3M | 11.9M to 12.7M | 201 points |
| US business and financial operations employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 9.8M | 9.6M to 10.1M | 201 points |
| Australia Employment Change, August 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.august_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 21k | -30k to 72k | 201 points |
| Belgium NBB business barometer, August 2026 nbb.business_barometer.overall.2026-08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -11.9 | -15.1 to -8.7 | 201 points |
| Belgium CPI annual inflation, August 2026 first print statbel.cpi.headline_yoy.2026-08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.55% | 2.71% to 4.4% | 201 points |
| Belgium health-index inflation, August 2026 statbel.health_index.yoy.2026-08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.2% | 2.1% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual rate, August 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.august_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8% | 1.3% to 2.3% | 201 points |
| US Personal Transfer Payments, Q2 2026 bea.ita.personal_transfer_payments.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $18,511M | $18,129M to $18,893M | 201 points |
| Belgium unemployment rate, August 2026 eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.3% | 6.1% to 6.5% | 201 points |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15 Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 199k | 183k to 215k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual rate, August 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_08.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.8% | 2.3% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, August 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.2026_08.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 4.2% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, August 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026_08.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 3.0% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| SSI total recipients, Aug. 2026 ssa.ssi.total_recipients.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.3M | 7.3M to 7.3M | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment, August 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.august_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.3% | 6.2% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| Canada EI regular beneficiaries, August 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.august_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 538k | 520k to 556k | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, August 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_08.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.2% to 0.6% | 201 points |
| FY2026 CDFI Assistance Obligations usaspending.cdfi.assistance_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $281.1M | $-540.6M to $1,102.8M | 201 points |
| FY2026 HIDTA AL 95.001 obligations usaspending.ondcp.hidta_al95001_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $271.658M | $257.223M to $286.093M | 201 points |
| USFS Minnesota obligations, FY2026 usaspending.usfs.minnesota_place_of_performance_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $29.5M | $12.3M to $46.7M | 201 points |
| UK Total Trade Balance, June 2026 ons.trade.total_goods_services_balance.2026_06.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | £-3.1B | £-6.8B to £0.6B | 201 points |
| UK PPI Output Manufactured Products Index, July 2026 ons.ppi.output_manufactured_products_index.2026_07.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +154.0 | +152.9 to 155.1 | 201 points |
| NTIA 11.038 FY2026 obligations usaspending.ntia.broadband_al11038_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $45M | $5M to $290M | 201 points |
| US DoD prime award obligations FY2026 usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 455 | 380 to 530 | 201 points |
| FY2026 DoD prime contract obligations usaspending.dod.prime_contract_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 505 | 456.5 to 553.5 | 201 points |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls, August 2026 bls.ces.total_nonfarm.payroll_employment.change.sa.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 35k | -92k to 162k | 201 points |
| US unemployment rate, August 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 4.0% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| US telework rate, August 2026 bls.cps.telework_share.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 22.1% | 21.5% to 22.7% | 201 points |
| US CPI-U MoM, August 2026 bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | -0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US Core CPI MoM, Aug. 2026 bls.cpi.u.core_mom.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, August 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US MTS Deficit, August 2026 treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $230B | $15B to $445B | 201 points |
| US JOLTS quits rate, Aug. 2026 bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.9% | 1.7% to 2.1% | 201 points |
| US Core PCE MoM, Aug 2026 us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-08 Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS Job Openings, August 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.1M | 6.5M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, August 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.8M to 7.2M | 201 points |
| US SNAP participation, August 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.august_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 36M | 35.3M to 36.8M | 201 points |
| SBA Disaster loan charge-offs FY2026 sba.disaster.loan_program.charge_off_amount.2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $258,333,333 | $85,714,286 to $575,000,000 | 201 points |
| SBA Disaster Charge-Off Rate FY2026 sba.disaster.loan_program.charge_off_rate_upb.2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.6% | 0.72% to 3.25% | 201 points |
| SBA disaster post-charge-off recoveries FY2026 sba.disaster.loan_program.post_charge_off_recovery.2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $103,333,333 | $63,333,333 to $150,000,000 | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 201k | 187k to 215k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-07 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 197k | 184k to 210k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-07 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| DoD New Prime Awards FY2026 usaspending.dod.new_prime_awards.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.7M | 201 points |
| DoD Prime Award Transactions FY2026 usaspending.dod.prime_award_transactions.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.9M | 3.5M to 4.3M | 201 points |
| DoD Unique Prime Contract Recipients, FY2026 usaspending.dod.unique_prime_contract_recipients.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 56k | 54k to 59k | 201 points |
| DoD Small-Business Contract Obligation Share FY2026 usaspending.dod.small_business_contract_obligation_share.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 20.2% | 18.6% to 21.8% | 201 points |
| DHS Title VI FY2026 award obligations usaspending.dhs.title_vi.award_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $24,800,000,000 | $18,160,000,000 to $31,440,000,000 | 201 points |
| 2027 child SPM poverty rate if ACTC threshold falls to $1 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027.first_print.threshold_one_dollar Headline | United States | 2026-08-06 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 13.2% | 6.8% to 19.6% | 201 points |
| U.S. child SPM poverty rate, CY2027 current law census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027.first_print.current_law Headline | United States | 2026-08-06 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 13.4% | 8.3% to 18.5% | 201 points |
| ACTC claims under a $1 earnings threshold, TY2027 irs.actc.total_claims.2027.first_print.threshold_one_dollar Headline | United States | 2026-08-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 27.2M | 14.7M to 39.7M | 201 points |
| Additional Child Tax Credit claims, TY2027 irs.actc.total_claims.2027.first_print.current_law Headline | United States | 2026-08-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 17.6M | 5.1M to 30.1M | 201 points |
| US JOLTS hires rate, July 2026 bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.3% | 3.1% to 3.5% | 201 points |
| US ECI Private Wages Q3 2026 bls.eci.private_wages_salaries_qoq.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.8% | +0.7% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| US nonfarm unit labor costs Q3 2026 prelim bls.productivity.nonfarm_unit_labor_costs_qoq_prelim.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.4% | -0.3% to 5.1% | 201 points |
| US housing completions, July 2026 census.housing.completions_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.39m | 1.27m to 1.51m | 201 points |
| US export prices MoM, Jul 2026 bls.export_prices.all_commodities_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | -1.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| US durable goods orders MoM, July 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_new_orders_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | -5.2% to 6.0% | 201 points |
| US durable goods shipments MoM, July 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_shipments_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | -0.3% to 1.1% | 201 points |
| US construction spending MoM, July 2026 census.construction_spending.total_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.8% to 1.0% | 201 points |
| US consumer credit annual rate, July 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_total_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.4% | -0.2% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| US revolving consumer credit annual rate, July 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +3.5% | -3.5% to 10.5% | 201 points |
| US Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Annual Rate, July 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_nonrevolving_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.1% | +0.6% to 3.6% | 201 points |
| US ECI Private Compensation Q2 2026 bls.eci.total_compensation_private_industry_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.9% | +0.8% to 1.0% | 201 points |
| US ECI Private Wages Q2 2026 bls.eci.private_wages_salaries_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.8% | +0.3% to 1.3% | 201 points |
| U-6 Underemployment Rate, July 2026 bls.cps.u6_underemployment_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.9% | 7.7% to 8.1% | 201 points |
| U-6 Underemployment Rate, July 2026 bls.cps.u6_underemployment_rate.2026_07.first_print khs challenge submission | United States | 2026-07-31 | github:khs::Claude Opus 5 (Claude Code) Claude Opus 5 (Claude Code) | trace only | unreported | 7.9% | 7.7% to 8.1% | 201 points |
| US CPI Primary Rent MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.rent_primary_residence_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US CPI OER MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.owners_equivalent_rent_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US CPI Services Less Energy MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.services_less_energy_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US CPI services ex shelter MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.services_less_rent_shelter_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US manufacturing production m/m, July 2026 fed.g17.manufacturing_production_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.3% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US manufacturing capacity utilization, July 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.manufacturing.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 75.6% | 75.25% to 75.95% | 201 points |
| US Building Permits, July 2026 census.housing.permits_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.38m | 1.3m to 1.46m | 201 points |
| US durable goods orders MoM, June 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_new_orders_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.8% | -4.8% to 8.4% | 201 points |
| US Durable Goods Shipments MoM, Jun 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_shipments_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.6% | -0.2% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| US construction spending MoM, June 2026 census.construction_spending.total_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.4% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS hires rate, June 2026 bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.3% | 3.12% to 3.48% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS hires rate, June 2026 bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_06.first_print PavelMakarchuk challenge submission | United States | 2026-07-31 | github:PavelMakarchuk::Claude Fable 5 (pavel onboarding agent) Claude Fable 5 (pavel onboarding agent) | trace only | unreported | 3.3% | 3.1% to 3.45% | 201 points |
| US Q2 2026 preliminary unit labor costs bls.productivity.nonfarm_unit_labor_costs_qoq_prelim.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +3.0% | -0.8% to 6.8% | 201 points |
| US Consumer Credit Annual Rate, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_total_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.2% | -0.2% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| US revolving credit growth, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +3.8% | -2.6% to 10.2% | 201 points |
| US nonrevolving consumer credit annual rate, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_nonrevolving_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.9% | -0.3% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| US CPI Shelter MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.shelter_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.0% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand MoM, July 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | -0.2% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual rate, July 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_07.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.7% | 2.2% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| Australia Employment Change, July 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.july_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 24k | -27k to 75k | 201 points |
| US initial jobless claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01 Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 206k | 189k to 223k | 201 points |
| US initial jobless claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-25 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 187k | 172k to 202k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.7M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-25 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US Total Industrial Production MoM, Jul 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.6% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| US Total Industry Capacity Utilization, July 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 76.14% | 75.62% to 76.66% | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, July 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.4M | 1.1M to 1.7M | 201 points |
| US Import Prices MoM, July 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.0% | +0.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| US New Home Sales SAAR, July 2026 census.new_residential_sales.new_single_family_houses_sold_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 620k | 538k to 702k | 201 points |
| US goods and services trade deficit, July 2026 bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $69B | $56.1B to $81.9B | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending July 25 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25 Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 212k | 202k to 222k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending July 25 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-21 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 208k | 199k to 217k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, July 25 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, July 25 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-21 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US production employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.6M | 7.4M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| US transportation and material-moving employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 12M | 11.8M to 12.2M | 201 points |
| US business and financial operations employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 9.7M | 9.4M to 10M | 201 points |
| US computer and math employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.6M to 7.4M | 201 points |
| US healthcare support employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 5.8M | 4.6M to 7M | 201 points |
| US office and administrative support employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 16.3M | 16.2M to 16.5M | 201 points |
| US opening-establishment job gains, Q4 2025 bls.bed.private_gross_job_gains.opening_establishments.2025_q4.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.64m | 1.58m to 1.69m | 201 points |
| US private compensation cost, Q2 2026 bls.ecec.private_total_compensation.hourly_cost.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $46.95 | $46.70 to $47.20 | 201 points |
| US defense capital-goods inventories, June 2026 census.m3.defense_capital_goods.inventories.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $28.4B | $28.2B to $28.5B | 201 points |
| US PCE Prices, June 2026 bea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.3% to 0.1% | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, June 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $3,277.2B | $3,266.8B to $3,287.6B | 201 points |
| BEA Medicaid Benefits, June 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1,054.5B | $1,043.8B to $1,065.2B | 201 points |
| US Medicare Benefits, June 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1,342.3B | $1,338.3B to $1,346.3B | 201 points |
| US Core PCE MoM, June 2026 bea.pce.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US Social Security Benefits, June 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1,657.3B | $1,652.8B to $1,661.8B | 201 points |
| UK claimant count, June 2026 ons.labour.claimant_count.2026_06.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.73m | 1.71m to 1.74m | 201 points |
| Euro-area construction production, May 2026 eurostat.construction.production_index.2026_05.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +105.7 | +104.4 to 107.1 | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, June 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 18k | -22k to 58k | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, June 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 3.6% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia June building approvals abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.5% | -22.0% to 25.0% | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, June 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $5,028.3B | $5,005.4B to $5,051.2B | 201 points |
| Canada EI regular beneficiaries, July 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.july_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 529k | 522k to 536k | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, July 2026 statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-07.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.3% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 Headline | United States | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 216k | 203k to 229k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-11 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 215k | 206k to 224k | 201 points |
| US Continued Claims, July 18 Week dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, July 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.july_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 4.1% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, July 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US SNAP participation, July 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.july_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 35.9M | 34.7M to 37.1M | 201 points |
| US WIC Participation, June 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US SNAP Participation, June 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.june_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 35.6M | 34.7M to 36.4M | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,741.4B | $23,634.4B to $23,848.3B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,730B | $23,620B to $23,860B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,730B | $23,630B to $23,830B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,701B | $23,577.5B to $23,824.5B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,720B | $23,617.6B to $23,822.4B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,720B | $23,596.5B to $23,843.5B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $23,720B | $23,596B to $23,825B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,710B | $23,620B to $23,840B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,690B | $23,596B to $23,784B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,705B | $23,605.3B to $23,804.7B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $24,185B | $24,074.7B to $24,295.3B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $23,705B | $23,603.7B to $23,806.4B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,725B | $23,615B to $23,830B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,701.7B | $23,578.2B to $23,825.2B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,711.7B | $23,588.2B to $23,835.2B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,729.1B | $23,626.7B to $23,831.6B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $23,711.7B | $23,587.6B to $23,832.1B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,690B | $23,485.7B to $23,900B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,715B | $23,590B to $23,836.7B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,770B | $23,695B to $23,850B | 201 points |
| UK CPI Annual Rate, June 2026 ons.cpi.annual_rate.june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.9% | 2.5% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| UK PAYE Payrolled Employees, June 2026 ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 30.3M | 30.2M to 30.3M | 201 points |
| UK PSNB ex Banks, June 2026 ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | £24.8B | £13.8B to £35.8B | 201 points |
| US New Home Sales SAAR, June 2026 census.new_residential_sales.new_single_family_houses_sold_saar.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 590k | 525k to 655k | 201 points |
| US goods and services trade deficit, June 2026 bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $67B | $39.7B to $94.3B | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.1% | -0.3% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.2% | -0.6% to 0.2% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-luna | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.1% | -0.4% to 0.6% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.4% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.7% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.8M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.9M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.9M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 7M | 6.9M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.7M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.8M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.9M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.7M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.6M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.8M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.8M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $308.1B | $262.4B to $353.8B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $291B | $242B to $340B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $280B | $237B to $323B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $295B | $248B to $342B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $305B | $259.4B to $350.6B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $295B | $247.7B to $342.4B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $319.1B | $240B to $430B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $325B | $272B to $378B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $324.2B | $213.1B to $435.3B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $290B | $231.3B to $350B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $260B | $148B to $372B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $289B | $177B to $401B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $300B | $247.5B to $352.5B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $289B | $176.1B to $372.9B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $270B | $201.1B to $358B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $305.5B | $210B to $400B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $255B | $190B to $350B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $296B | $213B to $380B | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 535k | 519k to 551k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 545k | 534k to 555k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 538k | 533k to 542k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 541k | 534k to 548k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 541k | 534k to 548k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 539k | 522k to 558k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 536k | 522k to 550k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 540k | 523k to 557k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 537k | 520k to 553k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 537k | 522k to 554k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 542k | 530k to 554k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 542k | 530k to 554k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 539k | 523k to 556k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 542k | 529k to 555k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 541k | 523k to 561k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 550k | 528k to 574k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 543k | 529k to 561k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 548k | 537k to 561k | 201 points |
| US Core PCE MoM, July 2026 us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-07 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.2% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 3.2% to 5.1% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.4% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.0% to 5.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 3.1% to 5.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 4.1% | 3.1% to 5.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.3% | 2.5% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.4% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.6% | 3.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 3.6% | 3.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 3.0% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 2.9% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 3.5% to 5.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.6% | 3.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 3.8% | 3.0% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.0% | 3.3% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.2% | 2.6% to 3.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 3.8% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.7% | 3.1% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 3.7% | 3.1% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.3% | 3.5% to 5.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.0% | 3.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 3.5% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.9% | 3.3% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Canada Monthly GDP Growth, June 2026 statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-06.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS job openings, July 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.3M | 6.7M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| US JOLTS quits rate, July 2026 bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.9% | 1.75% to 2.05% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, July 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.july_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.2% | 6.0% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| Belgium unemployment rate, July 2026 eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_07.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.0% | 5.8% to 6.2% | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, May 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.may_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 41.9M | 41.2M to 42.6M | 201 points |
| Belgium GDP Flash Q3 2026 nbb.gdp.flash_qoq.2026_q3.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.0% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US Nonfarm Productivity Q3 2026 Preliminary bls.productivity.nonfarm_qoq_prelim.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.7% | -1.7% to 5.1% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 216k | 203k to 229k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-10 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 215k | 206k to 224k | 201 points |
| US Continued Claims, Jul 11 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| SSDI initial applications, Apr 2027 ssa.dds.initial_disability_receipts.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_holds Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 233k | 193k to 273k | 201 points |
| SSDI initial applications, Apr 2027, delay branch ssa.dds.initial_disability_receipts.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_delayed Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 227k | 187k to 267k | 201 points |
| CA Medi-Cal ages 50-64, Apr. 2027 | deadline holds ca.dhcs.medi_cal_certified_eligibles.ages_50_64.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_holds Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.49m | 2.27m to 2.71m | 201 points |
| CA Medi-Cal ages 50-64, Apr. 2027 | deadline delayed ca.dhcs.medi_cal_certified_eligibles.ages_50_64.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_delayed Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.66m | 2.55m to 2.78m | 201 points |
| VA pending disability claims, July 13 2026 va.vba.mmwr.claims_inventory.week_2026-07-13.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 604k | 598k to 610k | 201 points |
| SSI recipients aged 65+ June 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients_aged_65_plus.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.5m | 2.5m to 2.51m | 201 points |
| SSDI disabled workers, June 2026 ssa.oasdi.disabled_worker_beneficiaries.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.01m | 7.0m to 7.02m | 201 points |
| SSA hearings average processing time, Jun 2026 ssa.hearings.average_processing_time_days.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 326 | 322 to 330 | 201 points |
| US 55+ LFPR, July 2026 bls.cps.lfpr_55_plus.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 37.1% | 37.0% to 37.2% | 201 points |
| Disability employment-population ratio, July 2026 bls.cps.LNU02374597.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 21.6% | 20.9% to 22.3% | 201 points |
| US senior SPM poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.poverty_rate_65_plus.2025.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 15.3% | 13.1% to 17.5% | 201 points |
| Social Security COLA 2027 ssa.cola.annual_adjustment.2027.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 0.7% to 6.9% | 201 points |
| US nursing-home total nurse staffing HPRD, July 2026 first print cms.nursing_home_compare.reported_total_nurse_staffing_hprd_us.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.92 | 3.84 to 4.00 | 201 points |
| US home health employment, July 2026 bls.ces.home_health_care_services.employment.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.89m | 1.88m to 1.9m | 201 points |
| Colorado SSI recipients, July 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients.colorado.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 66k | 66k to 67k | 201 points |
| U.S. 65+ Broadband Subscription Share, 2025 ACS census.acs.broadband_subscription_65_plus.share.2025.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-24 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 89.8% | 88.9% to 90.7% | 201 points |
| SSA Retired-Worker Awards Claimed at 62, 2025 ssa.annual_statistical_supplement.table_6b5.retired_worker_awards.share_claimed_age_62.2025.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 22.2% | 21.1% to 23.3% | 201 points |
| VA Pension A&A Recipients, FY2026 va.vba.pension.aid_attendance_recipients.FY2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 46k | 41k to 52k | 201 points |
| SNAP Participants Age 60+ Share, FY2025 usda.fns.snap.participants_age_60_plus.share.fy2025.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 20.4% | 19.5% to 21.3% | 201 points |
| Colorado labor force, July 2026 bls.laus.colorado.labor_force.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-23 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.18m | 3.18m to 3.19m | 201 points |
| Colorado individual income tax collections, July 2026 co.dor.individual_income_tax.net_collections.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-23 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1B | $0.4B to $1.5B | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid caseload, August 2026 co.hcpf.medicaid.total_caseload.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-23 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.25m | 1.23m to 1.27m | 201 points |
| US aircraft manufacturing establishments, Q1 2026 bls.qcew.aircraft_manufacturing.establishments.2026_q1.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-23 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 395 | 386 to 404 | 201 points |
| US nursing home occupancy, July 2026 cms.care_compare.nursing_home_occupancy_pct.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 79.82% | 79.75% to 79.89% | 201 points |
| Colorado SSI Recipients 65+ July 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients.colorado.aged_65_plus.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 23,060 | 23,024 to 23,096 | 201 points |
| UK Construction Output Growth, May 2026 ons.outputintheconstructionindustryallworksummary.total_construction_output_mom_sa.2026-05.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.9% to 1.1% | 201 points |
| US total industry capacity utilization, June 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 76.2% | 75.6% to 76.8% | 201 points |
| US industrial production MoM, Jun 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.5% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid ex parte renewals, Jun 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_ex_parte.california.2026-06.preliminary_first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 718,000 | 662,000 to 774,000 | 201 points |
| California Medicaid Renewals, Jun 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_total.california.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 590,000 | 530,000 to 650,000 | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.6% | +0.1% to 1.1% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| UK manufacturing output index, May 2026 ons.iop.manufacturing_cvmsa_index.2026-05.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +101.6 | +100.3 to 102.9 | 201 points |
| UK Index of Services May 2026 ons.ios.total_services_cvmsa_index.2026-05.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +104.7 | +104.1 to 105.3 | 201 points |
| US advance retail sales monthly change, June 2026 census.marts.adv44x72.monthly_change.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | -1.0% to 1.6% | 201 points |
| US import prices MoM, Jun 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.1% | +0.0% to 2.2% | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.3M | 1.1M to 1.5M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| California Medicaid Procedural Disenrollments, June 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_procedural.california.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 205,000 | 170,000 to 240,000 | 201 points |
| California Medicaid/CHIP disenrollments, June 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_total.california.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 222,000 | 206,000 to 238,000 | 201 points |
| US continued claims, Jul 4 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| Average hourly earnings, May 2026 month-over-month bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | +0.0% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | Three-agent CPI ensemble Codex recorded agent ensemble | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings_total.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.45m | 6.8m to 8.15m | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings_total.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.35m | 6.65m to 8.05m | 201 points |
| SNAP four-person maximum allotment, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.maximum_allotment.household_size_4.48dc.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,022/mo | $1,005/mo to $1,045/mo | 201 points |
| SNAP four-person maximum allotment, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.maximum_allotment.household_size_4.48dc.fy2027 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1,021/mo | $1,000/mo to $1,055/mo | 201 points |
| HHS poverty guideline, family of four, 2027 hhs.aspe.poverty_guideline.household_size_4.48dc.2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $33,920 | $33,520 to $34,480 | 201 points |
| Child Tax Credit maximum, TY2027 irs.irc24.child_tax_credit.maximum.ty2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,300 | $2,200 to $2,500 | 201 points |
| Child Tax Credit maximum, TY2027 irs.irc24.child_tax_credit.maximum.ty2027 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $2,300 | $2,200 to $2,400 | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, March 2026 usda.fns.snap.participation.march_2026.fixed_vintage Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 37.1M | 36.4M to 37.8M | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, March 2026 usda.fns.snap.participation.march_2026.fixed_vintage Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 41.9M | 41M to 42.9M | 201 points |
| WIC total participation, March 2026 usda.fns.wic.total_participants.march_2026.fixed_vintage Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.6M | 6.5M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| WIC total participation, March 2026 usda.fns.wic.total_participants.march_2026.fixed_vintage Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.7M | 6.6M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, March 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.march_2026.fixed_vintage Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.4M | 74M to 74.8M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, March 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.march_2026.fixed_vintage Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 78.1M | 77.3M to 78.9M | 201 points |
| IRS cumulative refunds, October 2026 irs.filing_season.total_amount_refunded.october_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $370B | $360B to $382B | 201 points |
| IRS cumulative refunds, October 2026 irs.filing_season.total_amount_refunded.october_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $368B | $356B to $385B | 201 points |
| UK monthly GDP growth, April 2026 ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| UK CPI annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.9% | 2.6% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Feb-Apr 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.february_to_april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.1% | 4.8% to 5.4% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Apr-Jun 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.april_to_june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.2% | 4.7% to 5.7% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Apr-Jun 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.april_to_june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 5.1% | 4.7% to 5.5% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Jul-Sep 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.july_to_september_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.2% | 4.6% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Jul-Sep 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.july_to_september_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 5.1% | 4.5% to 5.8% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Oct-Dec 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.1% | 4.4% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Oct-Dec 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print Thesis analyst live run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-16 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 8 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 5.1% | 4.4% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| UK PAYE payrolled employees, May 2026 ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 30.2M | 30M to 30.3M | 201 points |
| Great Britain retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | +0.5% | -0.6% to 1.6% | 201 points |
| UK public sector net borrowing, May 2026 ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | £18.5B | £13B to £24B | 201 points |
| Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 3.75% | 3.75% to 4.0% | 201 points |
| Canada unemployment rate, May 2026 statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 7.0% | 6.7% to 7.3% | 201 points |
| Canada employment change, May 2026 statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | -10k | -60k to 50k | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.7% | 2.3% to 3.1% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 2.6% | 2.2% to 3.0% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Canada May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Canada | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Bank of Canada overnight rate, June 2026 bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.25% | 2.0% to 2.25% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 4.5% | 4.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 4.5% | 4.1% to 4.9% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May labour pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 4.5% | 4.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.5% | 4.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 15k | -45k to 75k | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 10k | -55k to 75k | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May labour pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 20k | -35k to 85k | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 20k | -35k to 75k | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 4.1% | 3.7% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 4.2% | 3.6% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 4.6% | 3.8% to 5.4% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.9% | 4.2% to 5.6% | 201 points |
| RBA cash rate target, June 2026 rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026 Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 4.35% | 4.35% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026 ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.0% | 2.0% to 2.25% | 201 points |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, May 2026 final eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 3.2% | 3.1% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 3.1% | 2.8% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.0% | 1.7% to 2.3% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 6.3% | 6.2% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 6.3% | 6.1% to 6.5% | 201 points |
| Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026 boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026 Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 0.75% | 0.75% to 1.0% | 201 points |
| Japan CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 1.5% | 1.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 1.6% | 1.2% to 2.0% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.5% | 2.7% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.5% | 2.3% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 2.5% | 2.3% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Japan | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.5% | 2.3% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| US PPI final demand inflation, May 2026 bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.5% | -0.2% to 1.3% | 201 points |
| US industrial production growth, May 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | -0.5% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| US capacity utilization, May 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | 76.3% | 75.6% to 76.9% | 201 points |
| US import price inflation, May 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.6% | -0.3% to 1.5% | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| US total business inventories, April 2026 census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $2,725B | $2,716.5B to $2,732.5B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $4,997B | $4,955B to $5,045B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $4,990B | $4,935B to $5,060B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $4,998B | $4,950B to $5,055B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $4,315B | $4,295B to $4,338B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $1,650B | $1,638B to $1,662B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $1,650B | $1,632B to $1,668B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $1,651B | $1,640B to $1,663B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $1,650.5B | $1,638B to $1,663B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $1,332B | $1,318B to $1,346B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $1,330B | $1,312B to $1,348B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $1,332B | $1,320B to $1,344B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $1,332B | $1,326B to $1,338B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $1,041B | $1,029B to $1,057B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $1,038B | $1,018B to $1,058B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $1,041B | $1,025B to $1,060B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $1,037.5B | $1,018B to $1,056B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $13,350B | $13,300B to $13,405B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $13,345B | $13,280B to $13,410B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA personal-income pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | $13,362B | $13,315B to $13,410B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $13,365B | $13,325B to $13,405B | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $3,266.8B | $3,247.5B to $3,301B | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $3,262B | $3,235B to $3,310B | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA personal-income pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $3,268B | $3,248B to $3,301B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $23,512B | $23,445B to $23,615B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $23,500B | $23,420B to $23,625B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA personal-income pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $23,520B | $23,445B to $23,620B | 201 points |
| US PCE price index inflation, May 2026 bea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.6% | 201 points |
| US real GDP growth, Q1 2026 third estimate bea.real_gdp.saar.q1_2026.third_estimate Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +1.5% | +1.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| US federal monthly deficit, May 2026 treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $305B | $240B to $380B | 201 points |
| US aerospace products employment, June 2026 bls.ces.aerospace_product_and_parts_employment.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | 589k | 583k to 596k | 201 points |
| US ship and boat building employment, June 2026 bls.ces.ship_and_boat_building_employment.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | 148k | 147k to 150k | 201 points |
| Federal DoD employment, June 2026 bls.ces.federal_department_of_defense_employment.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | 474k | 452k to 501k | 201 points |
| DoD military programs gross outlays, June 2026 treasury.mts.dod_military_programs_gross_outlays.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | $72B | $62B to $86B | 201 points |
| DoD contract obligations, FY2026 usaspending.dod.contract_obligations.fy2026.fixed_vintage_2026_12_31 Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | $470B | $405B to $535B | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 10.42m | 10.05m to 10.80m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 10.48m | 10.13m to 10.86m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 10.35m | 10.35m to 10.35m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 5.85m | 5.55m to 6.15m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 5.9m | 5.62m to 6.21m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 5.78m | 5.78m to 5.78m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 7.42m | 7.05m to 7.8m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 7.48m | 7.12m to 7.86m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 7.34m | 7.34m to 7.34m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 17.65m | 17.20m to 18.05m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 17.59m | 17.14m to 17.98m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 17.78m | 17.78m to 17.78m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 8.52m | 8.15m to 8.9m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 8.5m | 8.12m to 8.88m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 8.59m | 8.59m to 8.59m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 14.05m | 13.50m to 14.65m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 14.11m | 13.58m to 14.70m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 14.01m | 14.01m to 14.01m | 201 points |
| CPS business and financial employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 10.04m | 9.6m to 10.48m | 201 points |
| CPS computer and mathematical employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 6.92m | 6.5m to 7.35m | 201 points |
| CPS healthcare support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 5.8m | 5.4m to 6.2m | 201 points |
| CPS office and administrative support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 16.30m | 15.65m to 16.95m | 201 points |
| CPS production employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 7.9m | 7.5m to 8.35m | 201 points |
| CPS transportation and material moving employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 12.10m | 11.50m to 12.70m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 11.48m | 10.35m to 12.80m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 11.71m | 10.65m to 12.75m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 11.85m | 11.85m to 11.85m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 6.3m | 5.0m to 7.6m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 6.12m | 5.12m to 7.25m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 5.96m | 5.96m to 5.96m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 9.1m | 8.1m to 10.35m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 9.02m | 8.15m to 9.9m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 8.97m | 8.97m to 8.97m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 17.20m | 14.50m to 19.40m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 17.85m | 15.30m to 19.45m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 18.56m | 18.56m to 18.56m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 8.55m | 7.6m to 9.65m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 8.75m | 7.8m to 9.65m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 8.9m | 8.9m to 8.9m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 14.25m | 12.50m to 16.10m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 14.58m | 12.80m to 16.15m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 14.78m | 14.78m to 14.78m | 201 points |
| Management 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,200 | $59,100 to $65,500 | 201 points |
| Management 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $60,130 | $59,630 to $60,630 | 201 points |
| Management 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $85,800 | $81,500 to $90,300 | 201 points |
| Management 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $82,970 | $82,470 to $83,470 | 201 points |
| Management median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $130,900 | $124,300 to $137,800 | 201 points |
| Management median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $126,520 | $126,020 to $127,020 | 201 points |
| Management mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $150,300 | $142,800 to $158,200 | 201 points |
| Management mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $145,260 | $144,760 to $145,760 | 201 points |
| Management 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $182,400 | $173,200 to $191,900 | 201 points |
| Management 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $176,280 | $175,780 to $176,780 | 201 points |
| Management 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $266,200 | $252,900 to $280,200 | 201 points |
| Management 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $257,310 | $256,810 to $257,810 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $50,500 | $48,000 to $53,200 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $48,820 | $48,320 to $49,320 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $65,100 | $61,900 to $68,500 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $62,940 | $62,440 to $63,440 | 201 points |
| Business and financial median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $85,500 | $81,200 to $90,000 | 201 points |
| Business and financial median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $82,660 | $82,160 to $83,160 | 201 points |
| Business and financial mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $98,500 | $93,600 to $103,700 | 201 points |
| Business and financial mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $95,230 | $94,730 to $95,730 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $118,800 | $112,800 to $125,000 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $114,820 | $114,320 to $115,320 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $159,300 | $151,300 to $167,700 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $153,990 | $153,490 to $154,490 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $60,200 | $57,200 to $63,400 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $58,200 | $57,700 to $58,700 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $81,500 | $77,500 to $85,800 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $78,820 | $78,320 to $79,320 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $113,000 | $107,400 to $119,000 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $109,280 | $108,780 to $109,780 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $124,200 | $118,000 to $130,800 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $120,080 | $119,580 to $120,580 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $161,200 | $153,100 to $169,700 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $155,830 | $155,330 to $156,330 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $198,000 | $188,100 to $208,500 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $191,450 | $190,950 to $191,950 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $60,700 | $57,700 to $63,900 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $58,670 | $58,170 to $59,170 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $79,200 | $75,200 to $83,400 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $76,560 | $76,060 to $77,060 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $102,900 | $97,800 to $108,400 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $99,520 | $99,020 to $100,020 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $110,500 | $105,000 to $116,300 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $106,830 | $106,330 to $107,330 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $134,700 | $128,000 to $141,800 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $130,240 | $129,740 to $130,740 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $172,200 | $163,600 to $181,300 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $166,490 | $165,990 to $166,990 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $50,100 | $47,600 to $52,700 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $48,420 | $47,920 to $48,920 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $64,500 | $61,300 to $67,900 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $62,380 | $61,880 to $62,880 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $85,400 | $81,100 to $89,900 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $82,530 | $82,030 to $83,030 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $97,900 | $93,000 to $103,000 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $94,600 | $94,100 to $95,100 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $118,400 | $112,500 to $124,600 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $114,460 | $113,960 to $114,960 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $161,200 | $153,100 to $169,700 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $155,830 | $155,330 to $156,330 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,300 | $37,300 to $41,300 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,970 | $37,470 to $38,470 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $48,000 | $45,600 to $50,500 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,370 | $45,870 to $46,870 | 201 points |
| Community and social service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $60,300 | $57,300 to $63,500 | 201 points |
| Community and social service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $58,300 | $57,800 to $58,800 | 201 points |
| Community and social service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $65,600 | $62,300 to $69,000 | 201 points |
| Community and social service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $63,410 | $62,910 to $63,910 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $78,500 | $74,600 to $82,700 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $75,910 | $75,410 to $76,410 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $101,000 | $95,900 to $106,300 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $97,630 | $97,130 to $98,130 | 201 points |
| Legal 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $51,100 | $48,500 to $53,800 | 201 points |
| Legal 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $49,400 | $48,900 to $49,900 | 201 points |
| Legal 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $67,000 | $63,700 to $70,600 | 201 points |
| Legal 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $64,800 | $64,300 to $65,300 | 201 points |
| Legal median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $106,000 | $100,700 to $111,600 | 201 points |
| Legal median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $102,500 | $102,000 to $103,000 | 201 points |
| Legal mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $144,300 | $137,100 to $151,900 | 201 points |
| Legal mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $139,510 | $139,010 to $140,010 | 201 points |
| Legal 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $180,600 | $171,600 to $190,100 | 201 points |
| Legal 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $174,620 | $174,120 to $175,120 | 201 points |
| Legal 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $297,000 | $282,100 to $312,600 | 201 points |
| Legal 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $287,070 | $286,570 to $287,570 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $34,100 | $32,400 to $35,900 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $32,990 | $32,490 to $33,490 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $45,400 | $43,100 to $47,800 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $43,900 | $43,400 to $44,400 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,700 | $59,500 to $66,000 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $60,570 | $60,070 to $61,070 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $69,900 | $66,400 to $73,500 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $67,540 | $67,040 to $68,040 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $82,200 | $78,100 to $86,500 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $79,470 | $78,970 to $79,970 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $108,900 | $103,400 to $114,600 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $105,240 | $104,740 to $105,740 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,900 | $34,100 to $37,800 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $34,700 | $34,200 to $35,200 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $46,300 | $43,900 to $48,700 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $44,720 | $44,220 to $45,220 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $64,900 | $61,700 to $68,300 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $62,750 | $62,250 to $63,250 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $82,500 | $78,400 to $86,900 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $79,790 | $79,290 to $80,290 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $97,800 | $92,900 to $102,900 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $94,530 | $94,030 to $95,030 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $139,500 | $132,600 to $146,900 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $134,900 | $134,400 to $135,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,900 | $45,500 to $50,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,270 | $45,770 to $46,770 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $66,100 | $62,800 to $69,500 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $63,860 | $63,360 to $64,360 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $89,500 | $85,000 to $94,200 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $86,530 | $86,030 to $87,030 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $112,400 | $106,800 to $118,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $108,700 | $108,200 to $109,200 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $127,800 | $121,400 to $134,500 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $123,540 | $123,040 to $124,040 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $177,700 | $168,800 to $187,100 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $171,790 | $171,290 to $172,290 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $30,000 | $28,500 to $31,600 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $28,980 | $28,480 to $29,480 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,500 | $33,700 to $37,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $34,320 | $33,820 to $34,820 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,700 | $37,700 to $41,700 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,340 | $37,840 to $38,840 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $42,200 | $40,100 to $44,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $40,800 | $40,300 to $41,300 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,500 | $45,100 to $50,000 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $45,930 | $45,430 to $46,430 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $56,100 | $53,300 to $59,000 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $54,230 | $53,730 to $54,730 | 201 points |
| Protective service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $34,000 | $32,300 to $35,800 | 201 points |
| Protective service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $32,850 | $32,350 to $33,350 | 201 points |
| Protective service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $38,600 | $36,700 to $40,700 | 201 points |
| Protective service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,350 | $36,850 to $37,850 | 201 points |
| Protective service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $51,800 | $49,200 to $54,500 | 201 points |
| Protective service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $50,080 | $49,580 to $50,580 | 201 points |
| Protective service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,800 | $59,700 to $66,100 | 201 points |
| Protective service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $60,720 | $60,220 to $61,220 | 201 points |
| Protective service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $78,600 | $74,700 to $82,700 | 201 points |
| Protective service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $75,990 | $75,490 to $76,490 | 201 points |
| Protective service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $106,000 | $100,700 to $111,600 | 201 points |
| Protective service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $102,470 | $101,970 to $102,970 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $23,900 | $22,700 to $25,200 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $23,120 | $22,620 to $23,620 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $29,800 | $28,300 to $31,300 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $28,760 | $28,260 to $29,260 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $36,300 | $34,400 to $38,200 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $35,050 | $34,550 to $35,550 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $38,400 | $36,500 to $40,500 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,150 | $36,650 to $37,650 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $43,300 | $41,100 to $45,600 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $41,860 | $41,360 to $42,360 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $53,100 | $50,500 to $55,900 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $51,340 | $50,840 to $51,840 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $30,000 | $28,500 to $31,600 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $29,010 | $28,510 to $29,510 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,100 | $33,300 to $36,900 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $33,930 | $33,430 to $34,430 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,000 | $37,000 to $41,000 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,680 | $37,180 to $38,180 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $42,300 | $40,200 to $44,500 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $40,880 | $40,380 to $41,380 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,800 | $45,400 to $50,300 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,170 | $45,670 to $46,670 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $59,400 | $56,400 to $62,500 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $57,420 | $56,920 to $57,920 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $27,300 | $26,000 to $28,800 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $26,430 | $25,930 to $26,930 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $31,900 | $30,300 to $33,600 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $30,820 | $30,320 to $31,320 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $37,700 | $35,800 to $39,600 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $36,410 | $35,910 to $36,910 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $42,500 | $40,400 to $44,700 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $41,070 | $40,570 to $41,570 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,600 | $45,300 to $50,200 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,060 | $45,560 to $46,560 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $63,100 | $60,000 to $66,400 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $61,020 | $60,520 to $61,520 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $29,000 | $27,600 to $30,600 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $28,080 | $27,580 to $28,580 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $33,600 | $31,900 to $35,300 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $32,440 | $31,940 to $32,940 | 201 points |
| Sales and related median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,900 | $37,900 to $42,000 | 201 points |
| Sales and related median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,530 | $38,030 to $39,030 | 201 points |
| Sales and related mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $56,900 | $54,000 to $59,800 | 201 points |
| Sales and related mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $54,960 | $54,460 to $55,460 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $63,200 | $60,000 to $66,500 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $61,100 | $60,600 to $61,600 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $103,300 | $98,100 to $108,700 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $99,850 | $99,350 to $100,350 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $34,700 | $33,000 to $36,500 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $33,530 | $33,030 to $34,030 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,900 | $37,900 to $42,000 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,540 | $38,040 to $39,040 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $49,100 | $46,600 to $51,700 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $47,450 | $46,950 to $47,950 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $53,300 | $50,700 to $56,100 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $51,560 | $51,060 to $52,060 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,100 | $59,000 to $65,400 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $60,060 | $59,560 to $60,560 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $78,800 | $74,900 to $82,900 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $76,170 | $75,670 to $76,670 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $32,900 | $31,200 to $34,600 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $31,760 | $31,260 to $32,260 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,700 | $33,900 to $37,600 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $34,540 | $34,040 to $35,040 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $37,900 | $36,000 to $39,900 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $36,630 | $36,130 to $37,130 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $42,900 | $40,800 to $45,200 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $41,510 | $41,010 to $42,010 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $46,500 | $44,200 to $49,000 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $44,990 | $44,490 to $45,490 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $60,200 | $57,200 to $63,400 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $58,220 | $57,720 to $58,720 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,400 | $37,400 to $41,500 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,100 | $37,600 to $38,600 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $48,500 | $46,100 to $51,000 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,880 | $46,380 to $47,380 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $61,600 | $58,500 to $64,800 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $59,540 | $59,040 to $60,040 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $67,600 | $64,200 to $71,200 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $65,360 | $64,860 to $65,860 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $80,700 | $76,600 to $84,900 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $77,970 | $77,470 to $78,470 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $105,200 | $99,900 to $110,700 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $101,650 | $101,150 to $102,150 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $38,300 | $36,400 to $40,300 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,000 | $36,500 to $37,500 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,700 | $45,300 to $50,200 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,110 | $45,610 to $46,610 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $61,700 | $58,600 to $64,900 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $59,620 | $59,120 to $60,120 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $65,500 | $62,200 to $68,900 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $63,320 | $62,820 to $63,820 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $79,300 | $75,300 to $83,500 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $76,670 | $76,170 to $77,170 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $99,900 | $94,900 to $105,100 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $96,540 | $96,040 to $97,040 | 201 points |
| Production 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,400 | $33,600 to $37,300 | 201 points |
| Production 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $34,240 | $33,740 to $34,740 | 201 points |
| Production 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,400 | $37,500 to $41,500 | 201 points |
| Production 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,130 | $37,630 to $38,630 | 201 points |
| Production median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $48,600 | $46,200 to $51,200 | 201 points |
| Production median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,990 | $46,490 to $47,490 | 201 points |
| Production mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $53,400 | $50,700 to $56,200 | 201 points |
| Production mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $51,600 | $51,100 to $52,100 | 201 points |
| Production 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,000 | $58,900 to $65,200 | 201 points |
| Production 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $59,920 | $59,420 to $60,420 | 201 points |
| Production 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $79,600 | $75,700 to $83,800 | 201 points |
| Production 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $76,990 | $76,490 to $77,490 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $32,100 | $30,500 to $33,800 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $31,060 | $30,560 to $31,560 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $37,500 | $35,700 to $39,500 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $36,290 | $35,790 to $36,790 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $45,900 | $43,600 to $48,300 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $44,350 | $43,850 to $44,850 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $51,600 | $49,000 to $54,300 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $49,850 | $49,350 to $50,350 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $57,900 | $55,000 to $61,000 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $55,990 | $55,490 to $56,490 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $74,900 | $71,200 to $78,900 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $72,440 | $71,940 to $72,940 | 201 points |
| Canada retail sales growth, April 2026 statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.6% | -0.2% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| Canada wholesale sales growth, April 2026 statcan.wholesale_trade.sales_mom_exclusions.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | -1.0% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | 552k | 536k to 570k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 556k | 535k to 580k | 201 points |
| Canada building permit value growth, April 2026 statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | -2.0% | -16.0% to 13.0% | 201 points |
| Euro area industrial production growth, April 2026 eurostat.industrial_production.euro_area.april_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.0% | -1.1% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.1% | -0.7% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.1% | -0.8% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026 abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +2.0% | -12.0% to 18.0% | 201 points |
| Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026 abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Australia | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.0% | -10.0% to 16.0% | 201 points |
| Japan real household spending growth, May 2026 statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | -0.3% | -2.0% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| Japan real household spending growth, May 2026 statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Japan | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -1.1% | -4.0% to 2.2% | 201 points |
| Individual income tax refunds, FY2026 treasury.mts.individual_income_tax_refunds.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $486B | $455B to $525B | 201 points |
| Individual income tax refunds, FY2026 treasury.mts.individual_income_tax_refunds.fy2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $340B | $295B to $395B | 201 points |
| Net PTC reconciliation amount, TY2025 irs.soi.net_premium_tax_credit_reconciliation.ty2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $8.6B | $6.4B to $11.2B | 201 points |
| Saver's Credit claimant returns, TY2025 irs.soi.savers_credit_claimant_returns.ty2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.9M | 5.3M to 6.6M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.dec_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.4M | 75.8M to 83.8M | 201 points |
| Direct-purchase health coverage rate, 2025 census.asec.direct_purchase_coverage_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.6% | 9.9% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Direct-purchase health coverage rate, 2025 census.asec.direct_purchase_coverage_rate.2025 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 11.3% | 10.7% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| Marketplace new consumers, OEP 2027 cms.marketplace.new_consumers.oep_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.2M | 2.4M to 4.4M | 201 points |
| Infant mortality 2026 | current-law CTC cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.current_law.final Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.50 per 1,000 | 5.34 per 1,000 to 5.72 per 1,000 | 201 points |
| Infant mortality 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.ctc_3000_refundable.final Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.40 per 1,000 | 5.16 per 1,000 to 5.66 per 1,000 | 201 points |
| SNAP cumulative redemptions, FY2026 usda.fns.snap.benefit_redemptions.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $111.5B | $103B to $122B | 201 points |
| WIC child participation, FY2026 usda.fns.wic.child_participation.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.9M | 3.6M to 4.2M | 201 points |
| CCDF payment per child, FY2026 hhs.acf.ccdf.average_monthly_payment_per_child.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $690/mo | $610/mo to $800/mo | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 9.3% to 11.2% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid procedural disenrollment share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.california.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.0% | 88.5% to 95.5% | 201 points |
| Alaska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ak.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.6% | 8.6% to 22.6% | 201 points |
| Alabama SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.al.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.5% | 6.9% to 10.1% | 201 points |
| Arkansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ar.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 8.1% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Arizona SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.az.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.1% | 5.8% to 10.3% | 201 points |
| California SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ca.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 8.0% to 12.4% | 201 points |
| Colorado SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.co.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 8.5% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Connecticut SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ct.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.4% | 8.8% to 12.1% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.dc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 16.5% | 14.1% to 18.9% | 201 points |
| Delaware SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.de.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.6% | 3.4% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| Florida SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.fl.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.6% | 13.3% to 17.9% | 201 points |
| Georgia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ga.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 16.4% | 13.6% to 19.2% | 201 points |
| Guam SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.gu.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.5% | 2.4% to 12.6% | 201 points |
| Hawaii SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.hi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.0% | 0.3% to 10.0% | 201 points |
| Iowa SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ia.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.2% | 4.8% to 7.7% | 201 points |
| Idaho SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.id.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.5% | 2.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Illinois SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.il.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 10.0% to 13.6% | 201 points |
| Indiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.in.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.1% | 7.7% to 10.6% | 201 points |
| Kansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ks.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.3% | 7.3% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Kentucky SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ky.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.5% to 11.3% | 201 points |
| Louisiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.la.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.5% | 5.2% to 7.8% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ma.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.0% | 11.9% to 18.1% | 201 points |
| Maryland SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.md.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 12.2% | 8.5% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| Maine SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.me.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.3% | 6.7% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| Michigan SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.1% | 7.5% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Minnesota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.2% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Missouri SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mo.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.0% | 7.4% to 10.6% | 201 points |
| Mississippi SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ms.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.7% | 9.4% to 12.0% | 201 points |
| Montana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.0% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| North Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 8.9% to 11.5% | 201 points |
| North Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.4% | 5.6% to 9.2% | 201 points |
| Nebraska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ne.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.0% | 3.2% to 6.7% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.2% | 2.7% to 9.7% | 201 points |
| New Jersey SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nj.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.8% | 1.8% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| New Mexico SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nm.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 14.5% | 13.2% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| Nevada SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.6% | 4.2% to 7.0% | 201 points |
| New York SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ny.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 14.3% | 12.6% to 16.0% | 201 points |
| Ohio SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.oh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.4% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ok.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.8% | 9.5% to 12.1% | 201 points |
| Oregon SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.or.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 13.2% | 10.9% to 15.6% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.pa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.1% | 5.2% to 13.1% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ri.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 12.1% | 10.8% to 13.4% | 201 points |
| South Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.8% | 0.3% to 12.8% | 201 points |
| South Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.1% | 1.8% to 4.4% | 201 points |
| Tennessee SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.5% | 6.0% to 11.1% | 201 points |
| Texas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tx.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.6% | 6.8% to 10.4% | 201 points |
| Utah SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ut.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.8% | 4.4% to 7.1% | 201 points |
| Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.va.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 9.9% to 13.6% | 201 points |
| Virgin Islands SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 1.7% | 0.3% to 6.1% | 201 points |
| Vermont SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.4% | 3.6% to 7.2% | 201 points |
| Washington SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.7% | 4.4% to 7.1% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 4.1% | 2.8% to 5.5% | 201 points |
| West Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.9% | 7.1% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Wyoming SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wy.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.0% | 3.7% to 6.3% | 201 points |
| Alaska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ak.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.0% | 55.0% to 73.0% | 201 points |
| Alabama SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.al.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.0% | 90.5% to 95.6% | 201 points |
| Arkansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ar.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.7% | 55.6% to 65.8% | 201 points |
| Arizona SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.az.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 90.3% | 87.8% to 92.8% | 201 points |
| California SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ca.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 80.1% | 77.1% to 83.0% | 201 points |
| Colorado SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.co.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.9% | 58.2% to 71.5% | 201 points |
| Connecticut SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ct.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.1% | 83.5% to 92.7% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.dc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 59.7% | 52.8% to 66.7% | 201 points |
| Delaware SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.de.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 71.1% | 62.1% to 80.1% | 201 points |
| Florida SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.fl.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 63.4% | 60.9% to 65.8% | 201 points |
| Georgia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ga.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.4% | 56.0% to 72.7% | 201 points |
| Guam SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.gu.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 48.1% | 40.1% to 56.2% | 201 points |
| Hawaii SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.hi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 67.3% | 61.6% to 73.0% | 201 points |
| Iowa SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ia.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 61.1% | 52.1% to 70.1% | 201 points |
| Idaho SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.id.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.3% | 83.2% to 95.4% | 201 points |
| Illinois SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.il.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 90.1% to 96.4% | 201 points |
| Indiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.in.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.0% | 78.1% to 83.9% | 201 points |
| Kansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ks.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.6% | 80.4% to 84.8% | 201 points |
| Kentucky SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ky.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 91.2% | 82.6% to 99.5% | 201 points |
| Louisiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.la.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.4% | 79.3% to 91.4% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ma.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.7% | 83.5% to 87.9% | 201 points |
| Maryland SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.md.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 87.8% to 98.9% | 201 points |
| Maine SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.me.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 58.1% | 49.1% to 67.1% | 201 points |
| Michigan SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.0% | 73.2% to 78.7% | 201 points |
| Minnesota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.1% | 74.0% to 84.2% | 201 points |
| Missouri SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mo.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.6% | 70.5% to 82.6% | 201 points |
| Mississippi SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ms.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.6% | 74.5% to 82.7% | 201 points |
| Montana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.9% | 58.4% to 71.4% | 201 points |
| North Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.5% | 76.2% to 88.9% | 201 points |
| North Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 58.6% | 54.4% to 62.9% | 201 points |
| Nebraska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ne.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.7% | 85.5% to 91.8% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.0% | 85.8% to 92.2% | 201 points |
| New Jersey SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nj.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.7% | 72.2% to 81.2% | 201 points |
| New Mexico SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nm.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 48.6% | 39.6% to 57.6% | 201 points |
| Nevada SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 91.1% to 95.5% | 201 points |
| New York SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ny.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.4% | 79.4% to 97.4% | 201 points |
| Ohio SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.oh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.1% | 89.9% to 94.3% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ok.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.8% | 86.4% to 91.1% | 201 points |
| Oregon SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.or.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 69.8% | 63.2% to 76.4% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.pa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 90.2% | 87.3% to 93.0% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ri.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 94.9% | 91.1% to 98.8% | 201 points |
| South Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.sc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.5% | 71.5% to 77.5% | 201 points |
| South Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.sd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.3% | 81.5% to 89.1% | 201 points |
| Tennessee SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.tn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 35.0% | 30.0% to 44.0% | 201 points |
| Texas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.tx.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 73.7% | 67.6% to 79.8% | 201 points |
| Utah SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ut.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.3% | 82.5% to 94.0% | 201 points |
| Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.va.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.3% | 77.8% to 86.8% | 201 points |
| Vermont SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.vt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.1% | 77.8% to 88.4% | 201 points |
| Washington SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.6% | 85.6% to 93.7% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 95.5% | 92.6% to 98.4% | 201 points |
| West Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.2% | 68.3% to 80.0% | 201 points |
| Wyoming SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wy.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 90.3% | 87.3% to 93.2% | 201 points |
| Alaska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ak.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 53.4% | 40.5% to 66.2% | 201 points |
| Alaska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ak.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 53.4% | 40.5% to 66.2% | 201 points |
| Alabama Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.al.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 57.1% | 51.9% to 62.2% | 201 points |
| Alabama Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.al.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 57.1% | 51.9% to 62.2% | 201 points |
| Arkansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ar.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.8% | 85.6% to 93.9% | 201 points |
| Arkansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ar.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 89.8% | 85.6% to 93.9% | 201 points |
| Arizona Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.az.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 85.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Arizona Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.az.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 93.3% | 85.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ca.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.9% | 78.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ca.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 88.9% | 78.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.co.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.8% | 68.5% to 81.0% | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.co.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 74.8% | 68.5% to 81.0% | 201 points |
| Connecticut Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ct.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 96.8% | 93.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Connecticut Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ct.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 96.8% | 93.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.dc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 91.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.dc.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 98.0% | 91.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Delaware Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.de.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 75.8% | 61.8% to 89.8% | 201 points |
| Delaware Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.de.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 73.8% | 57.2% to 88.7% | 201 points |
| Florida Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.fl.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 42.2% | 37.0% to 47.5% | 201 points |
| Florida Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.fl.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 40.4% | 33.8% to 48.3% | 201 points |
| Georgia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ga.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.6% | 78.2% to 88.9% | 201 points |
| Georgia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ga.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 83.6% | 78.2% to 88.9% | 201 points |
| Hawaii Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.hi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 63.2% | 51.1% to 75.4% | 201 points |
| Hawaii Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.hi.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 68.0% | 54.0% to 82.0% | 201 points |
| Iowa Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ia.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.3% | 64.3% to 92.3% | 201 points |
| Iowa Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ia.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 78.0% | 63.5% to 91.5% | 201 points |
| Idaho Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.id.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 84.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Idaho Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.id.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 94.2% | 78.4% to 99.8% | 201 points |
| Illinois Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.il.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.7% | 73.4% to 90.0% | 201 points |
| Illinois Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.il.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 81.7% | 73.4% to 90.0% | 201 points |
| Indiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.in.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 62.8% | 48.8% to 76.8% | 201 points |
| Indiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.in.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 64.5% | 49.5% to 78.5% | 201 points |
| Kansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ks.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 56.4% | 49.1% to 63.7% | 201 points |
| Kansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ks.aug_2026 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-07-01 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 56.4% | 46.8% to 67.2% | 201 points |
| Kentucky Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ky.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.2% | 84.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Kentucky Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ky.aug_2026 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-07-01 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 92.0% | 82.8% to 98.6% | 201 points |
| Louisiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.la.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 66.7% | 52.7% to 80.7% | 201 points |
| Louisiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.la.aug_2026 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-07-01 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 67.4% | 53.2% to 81.5% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ma.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.4% | 63.5% to 91.3% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ma.aug_2026 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-07-01 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 79.2% | 68.5% to 90.4% | 201 points |
| Maryland Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.md.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.0% | 68.7% to 83.4% | 201 points |
| Maine Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.me.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 91.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Michigan Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 80.9% | 74.6% to 87.2% | 201 points |
| Minnesota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 86.5% | 82.1% to 90.9% | 201 points |
| Missouri Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mo.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.2% | 85.9% to 98.5% | 201 points |
| Mississippi Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ms.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.5% | 47.7% to 73.4% | 201 points |
| Montana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 84.6% | 79.5% to 89.7% | 201 points |
| North Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 95.5% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| North Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.0% | 68.5% to 85.5% | 201 points |
| Nebraska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ne.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 84.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 67.6% | 53.6% to 81.6% | 201 points |
| New Jersey Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nj.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.4% | 64.4% to 92.4% | 201 points |
| New Mexico Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nm.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 66.4% | 52.4% to 80.4% | 201 points |
| Nevada Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 96.1% | 82.1% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| New York Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ny.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 26.2% | 12.2% to 40.2% | 201 points |
| Ohio Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.oh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 69.6% | 55.6% to 83.6% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ok.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.2% | 74.0% to 90.4% | 201 points |
| Oregon Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.or.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.3% | 74.9% to 87.7% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.pa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 43.8% | 30.3% to 57.4% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ri.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.4% | 84.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| South Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.2% | 81.8% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| South Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 75.3% | 64.1% to 86.6% | 201 points |
| Tennessee Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 69.0% | 61.2% to 76.7% | 201 points |
| Texas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tx.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 13.5% | 10.1% to 17.0% | 201 points |
| Utah Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ut.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 72.1% | 61.7% to 82.5% | 201 points |
| Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.va.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.0% | 46.0% to 74.0% | 201 points |
| Vermont Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.vt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.8% | 76.3% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Washington Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.9% | 91.2% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 59.4% | 51.0% to 67.8% | 201 points |
| West Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.9% | 75.3% to 88.5% | 201 points |
| Wyoming Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wy.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.7% | 63.7% to 91.7% | 201 points |
| Alaska Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ak.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 84.1% | 70.1% to 98.1% | 201 points |
| Alabama Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.al.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 23.4% | 18.6% to 28.3% | 201 points |
| Arkansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ar.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.0% | 69.0% to 85.0% | 201 points |
| Arizona Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.az.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.9% | 69.2% to 94.7% | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.co.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 68.9% | 54.9% to 82.9% | 201 points |
| Connecticut Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ct.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 43.9% | 29.9% to 57.9% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.dc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 92.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Delaware Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.de.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 75.0% | 63.6% to 86.4% | 201 points |
| Florida Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.fl.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 62.2% | 48.2% to 76.2% | 201 points |
| Georgia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ga.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 51.0% | 44.3% to 57.8% | 201 points |
| Hawaii Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.hi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.0% | 74.1% to 87.9% | 201 points |
| Iowa Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ia.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 72.8% | 62.3% to 83.3% | 201 points |
| Idaho Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.id.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 2.0% | 1.0% to 16.0% | 201 points |
| Illinois Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.il.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.8% | 76.4% to 91.3% | 201 points |
| Indiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.in.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 92.8% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Kansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ks.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 39.4% | 27.1% to 51.7% | 201 points |
| Kentucky Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ky.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.2% | 60.2% to 88.2% | 201 points |
| Louisiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.la.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 97.8% | 83.8% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ma.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 49.3% | 35.3% to 63.3% | 201 points |
| Maryland Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.md.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.3% | 83.5% to 95.1% | 201 points |
| Maine Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.me.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 91.3% | 77.3% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Michigan Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.2% | 80.8% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Minnesota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 87.1% | 78.5% to 95.6% | 201 points |
| Missouri Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mo.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 94.1% | 89.8% to 98.5% | 201 points |
| Mississippi Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ms.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.4% | 77.1% to 87.7% | 201 points |
| Montana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.0% | 63.1% to 90.9% | 201 points |
| North Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 59.6% | 54.8% to 64.4% | 201 points |
| North Dakota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.4% | 74.3% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| Nebraska Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ne.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 37.5% | 30.9% to 44.1% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.9% | 82.0% to 95.9% | 201 points |
| New Jersey Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nj.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.2% | 75.2% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| New Mexico Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nm.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.6% | 84.6% to 94.7% | 201 points |
| Nevada Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.7% | 68.0% to 89.4% | 201 points |
| New York Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ny.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 66.8% | 56.8% to 76.7% | 201 points |
| Ohio Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.oh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 88.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ok.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.5% | 79.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Oregon Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.or.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 65.0% | 54.6% to 75.5% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.pa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 40.0% | 29.1% to 50.9% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ri.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.6% | 63.6% to 91.6% | 201 points |
| South Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 22.4% | 12.1% to 32.6% | 201 points |
| South Dakota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.7% | 76.1% to 95.3% | 201 points |
| Tennessee Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 65.9% | 56.6% to 75.2% | 201 points |
| Texas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tx.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 72.1% | 58.1% to 86.1% | 201 points |
| Utah Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ut.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 91.3% | 87.0% to 95.5% | 201 points |
| Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.va.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 87.5% | 73.5% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Vermont Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.vt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 86.7% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Washington Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.5% | 80.4% to 90.7% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.2% | 50.1% to 70.3% | 201 points |
| West Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.1% | 77.2% to 89.0% | 201 points |
| Wyoming Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wy.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.5% | 64.7% to 90.4% | 201 points |
| SNAP jurisdictions at the cost-share threshold, FY 2025 fns.snap.share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.2% | 69.8% to 86.8% | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share provision in effect fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_in_effect Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 8.2% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share repealed or delayed fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_repealed Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.3% | 9.0% to 11.7% | 201 points |
| Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline holds cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_holds Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 33 min | 26 min to 43 min | 201 points |
| Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline delayed cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_delayed Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 15 min | 12 min to 18 min | 201 points |
| Probability the Medicaid work-requirement deadline holds through Q1 2027 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 89.0% | 80.0% to 94.0% | 201 points |
| Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 (unconditional) cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 29.4 min | 19.7 min to 38.4 min | 201 points |
| California procedural share | ex parte at or above 80% cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ca.aug_2026.conditional Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 94.5% | 91.5% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.6% | 9.6% to 11.7% | 201 points |
| Alaska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ak.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 23.1% | 21.1% to 25.1% | 201 points |
| Alabama SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.al.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.6% | 7.6% to 11.6% | 201 points |
| Arkansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ar.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.8% | 6.8% to 10.8% | 201 points |
| Arizona SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.az.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.9% | 8.9% to 12.9% | 201 points |
| California SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ca.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.9% | 8.9% to 12.9% | 201 points |
| Colorado SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.co.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.1% | 8.1% to 12.1% | 201 points |
| Connecticut SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ct.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.0% | 7.0% to 11.0% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.dc.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 18.7% | 16.7% to 20.7% | 201 points |
| Delaware SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.de.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 16.1% | 13.8% to 18.3% | 201 points |
| Florida SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.fl.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.9% | 10.8% to 14.9% | 201 points |
| Georgia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ga.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 15.2% | 13.2% to 17.2% | 201 points |
| Guam SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.gu.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 9.8% to 13.8% | 201 points |
| Hawaii SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.hi.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 11.1% | 8.7% to 13.4% | 201 points |
| Iowa SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ia.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.3% | 3.3% to 7.3% | 201 points |
| Idaho SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.id.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 3.9% | 1.9% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| Illinois SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.il.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 14.8% | 12.6% to 16.9% | 201 points |
| Indiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.in.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.8% | 7.8% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Kansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ks.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.4% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Kentucky SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ky.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 4.5% | 2.1% to 6.8% | 201 points |
| Louisiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.la.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.2% | 6.1% to 10.2% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ma.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.4% | 10.4% to 14.4% | 201 points |
| Maryland SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.md.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 13.1% | 11.1% to 15.1% | 201 points |
| Maine SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.me.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.8% | 8.8% to 12.8% | 201 points |
| Michigan SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mi.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.9% | 7.9% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| Minnesota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mn.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.7% | 10.4% to 14.9% | 201 points |
| Missouri SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mo.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.7% | 6.7% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Mississippi SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ms.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.5% to 11.5% | 201 points |
| Montana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mt.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.9% | 6.9% to 10.9% | 201 points |
| North Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nc.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 7.3% | 5.1% to 9.4% | 201 points |
| North Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nd.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.0% | 8.0% to 12.0% | 201 points |
| Nebraska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ne.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.9% | 3.9% to 7.9% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nh.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.9% | 6.9% to 10.9% | 201 points |
| New Jersey SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nj.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 6.6% | 3.7% to 9.4% | 201 points |
| New Mexico SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nm.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 16.9% | 14.8% to 18.9% | 201 points |
| Nevada SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nv.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 6.2% | 4.2% to 8.2% | 201 points |
| New York SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ny.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 13.2% | 11.1% to 15.2% | 201 points |
| Ohio SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.oh.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 6.7% | 4.6% to 8.7% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ok.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 11.1% | 9.1% to 13.1% | 201 points |
| Oregon SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.or.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 14.2% | 12.1% to 16.2% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.pa.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.2% | 7.2% to 11.2% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ri.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.4% | 10.4% to 14.4% | 201 points |
| South Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sc.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.8% | 6.8% to 10.8% | 201 points |
| South Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sd.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 2.5% | 0.5% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Tennessee SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tn.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.5% to 11.5% | 201 points |
| Texas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tx.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.4% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Utah SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ut.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.5% | 3.5% to 7.5% | 201 points |
| Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.va.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.4% | 10.4% to 14.4% | 201 points |
| Virgin Islands SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vi.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.4% | 3.4% to 7.4% | 201 points |
| Vermont SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vt.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.4% | 3.4% to 7.4% | 201 points |
| Washington SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wa.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 7.0% | 5.0% to 9.0% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wi.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.8% | 3.8% to 7.8% | 201 points |
| West Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wv.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 6.6% | 4.4% to 8.7% | 201 points |
| Wyoming SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wy.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 3.9% | 1.9% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| SNAP overpayment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.overpayment_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026 SNAP component error-rate model | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst damped_log_trend_v1 + Brier component check | trace only | unreported | 9.3% | 8.0% to 10.8% | 201 points |
| SNAP underpayment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.underpayment_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026 SNAP component error-rate model | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst damped_log_trend_v1 + Brier component check | trace only | unreported | 1.2% | 1.0% to 1.6% | 201 points |
| US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.1% | -0.5% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Brier-1 - housing packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May housing starts pack set Base-rate first, Housing activity nowcast, Release-vintage calibration | 1.5M | 1.3M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| UK CPIH annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpih.annual_rate.2026-05 Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.0% | 2.7% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| FOMC June 2026 decision: federal funds target range upper bound us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.75% | 3.5% to 3.75% | 201 points |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.75% | 3.75% to 4.0% | 201 points |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Thesis analyst fast run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-16 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.75% | 3.5% to 4.0% | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 222k | 202k to 242k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 219k | 197k to 244k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Brier-1 - claims packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June weekly claims pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 225k | 207k to 243k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-16 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 225k | 209k to 243k | 201 points |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Japan | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 1.4% | 1.0% to 1.8% | 201 points |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.0% | 2.5% to 3.5% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Canada | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 2.8% | 2.3% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 2.6% | 2.1% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Canada May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Australia | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 4.1% | 3.5% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 4.1% | 3.5% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 4.5% | 3.7% to 5.3% | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 220k | 198k to 242k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 221k | 198k to 246k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | June weekly claims pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 226k | 205k to 250k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 226k | 205k to 250k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 225k | 208k to 243k | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Brier-1 - PCE bridge packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May core PCE bridge pack set Base-rate first, PCE-CPI bridge, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 7.4M | 6.9M to 7.9M | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 7.2M | 6.6M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - JOLTS packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May JOLTS labor pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 7.4M | 7M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 7.5M | 6.9M to 8.1M | 201 points |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.2% | 2.8% to 3.6% | 201 points |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.3% | 2.8% to 3.9% | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 140k | 35k to 245k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 125k | -10k to 265k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June labor-market pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 150k | 35k to 260k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 150k | -20k to 310k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 140k | 35k to 245k | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 4.3% | 4.0% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June labor-market pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS) treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | $25B | $-90B to $170B | 201 points |
| U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS) treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $72B | $-35B to $210B | 201 points |
| U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS) treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $155B | $20B to $310B | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.3% | +0.0% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - CPI energy packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June monthly CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through, Release-vintage calibration | +0.5% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - core CPI packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June core CPI pack set Base-rate first, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 220k | 204k to 238k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 218k | 204k to 232k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 219k | 203k to 235k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 216k | 203k to 229k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 217k | 204k to 231k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 218k | 203k to 232k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, May 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 538k | 520k to 557k | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, June 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 4.1% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI inflation, Jun 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-06.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 3.7% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, June 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.june_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.2% | 6.0% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE MoM June 2026 us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-06 Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, July 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-07 Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.6% | 2.1% to 3.1% | 201 points |
| Canada GDP by industry, May 2026 statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-05.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, July 2026 prelim statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.july_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | 2026-07-05 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.4% | 2.7% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, Jun 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.5M | 6.9M to 8.1M | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, July 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| US nonfarm payrolls, Jul 2026 bls.ces.total_nonfarm.payroll_employment.change.sa.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 85k | -65k to 235k | 201 points |
| US CPI-U July 2026 MoM bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | -0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| US core CPI July 2026 MoM bls.cpi.u.core_mom.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Belgium consumer confidence, July 2026 nbb.consumer_confidence.indicator.2026-07.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -8.4 | -15.0 to -2.0 | 201 points |
| Belgium NBB business barometer, July 2026 nbb.business_barometer.overall.2026-07.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -12.2 | -17.5 to -7.0 | 201 points |
| Belgium CPI inflation, July 2026 statbel.cpi.headline_yoy.2026-07.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.2% | 2.4% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| Belgium health-index inflation, July 2026 statbel.health_index.yoy.2026-07.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.1% | 2.4% to 3.9% | 201 points |
| Belgium GDP flash, Q2 2026 nbb.gdp.flash_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Belgium unemployment rate, June 2026 eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_06.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.3% | 5.9% to 6.7% | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| WIC participation, Apr 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-04.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.7M | 6.6M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US Real Avg Hourly Earnings MoM, Jun 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.1% | -0.5% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS quits rate, Jun 2026 bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.9% | 1.8% to 2.0% | 201 points |
| US nonfarm productivity Q2 2026 prelim bls.productivity.nonfarm_qoq_prelim.2026-Q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.4% | -1.3% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| US telework share, July 2026 bls.cps.telework_share.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 21.8% | 17.8% to 25.8% | 201 points |
| SSI recipients, July 2026 ssa.ssi.total_recipients.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.3M | 7.3M to 7.3M | 201 points |
| Medicaid enrollment, Apr. 2027 | deadline delayed cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.2027_04.preliminary.deadline_delayed.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 72.9M | 69.9M to 75.9M | 201 points |
| Medicaid enrollment, Apr. 2027 | deadline holds cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_holds Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 68.8M | 65.9M to 71.7M | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2028 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.5% | 10.3% to 12.8% | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2028 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 14.2% | 10.8% to 18.0% | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.2% | 5.8% to 9.0% | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 8.7% | 5.7% to 12.0% | 201 points |
| Federal individual income tax revenue FY2028 | SALT cap fully repealed treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2028 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,790 | $2,630 to $2,960 | 201 points |
| Uninsured rate (under 65) 2028 | ACA enhanced subsidies expire census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2028 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.3% | 10.2% to 12.4% | 201 points |
Scored predictions
261 rows · facts from Ledger| prediction | geo | run type | forecast | actual | error | nCRPS | CRPS | PIT | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent ensemble | +0.5% | +0.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.043 | 0.50 | inside |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | +0.1% | +0.9% | +0.8% | n/a | 0.49 | 0.90 | inside |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Brier-1 - spending packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May retail sales pack set | +0.3% | +0.9% | +0.7% | n/a | 0.41 | 0.91 | outside |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.70 | inside |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May core PCE bridge pack set | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.037 | 0.57 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 201k | 209k | +8k | 0.42 | 4.86 | 0.73 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 197k | 209k | +12k | 0.62 | 7.25 | 0.87 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | +0M | 2.98 | 0.0086 | 0.54 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.8M | +0M | 4.00 | 0.012 | 0.93 | outside |
| US housing completions, July 2026 census.housing.completions_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.39m | 1.21m | -178k | n/a | 122 | 0.068 | outside |
| US export prices MoM, Jul 2026 bls.export_prices.all_commodities_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | -1.3% | -1.7% | n/a | 1.09 | 0.091 | outside |
| US ECI Private Compensation Q2 2026 bls.eci.total_compensation_private_industry_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.9% | +0.9% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.028 | 0.50 | inside |
| US ECI Private Wages Q2 2026 bls.eci.private_wages_salaries_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.11 | 0.59 | inside |
| U-6 Underemployment Rate, July 2026 bls.cps.u6_underemployment_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.043 | 0.50 | inside |
| U-6 Underemployment Rate, July 2026 bls.cps.u6_underemployment_rate.2026_07.first_print khs challenge submission | United States | Primary Claude Opus 5 (Claude Code) | 7.9% | 7.9% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.039 | 0.50 | inside |
| US CPI Primary Rent MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.rent_primary_residence_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.048 | 0.75 | inside |
| US CPI OER MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.owners_equivalent_rent_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.039 | 0.63 | inside |
| US CPI Services Less Energy MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.services_less_energy_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.050 | 0.34 | inside |
| US CPI services ex shelter MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.services_less_rent_shelter_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.066 | 0.35 | inside |
| US manufacturing production m/m, July 2026 fed.g17.manufacturing_production_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.10 | 0.60 | inside |
| US manufacturing capacity utilization, July 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.manufacturing.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 75.6% | 76.0% | +0.4% | n/a | 0.26 | 0.91 | outside |
| US Building Permits, July 2026 census.housing.permits_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.38m | 1.44m | +68k | n/a | 40.5 | 0.84 | inside |
| US durable goods orders MoM, June 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_new_orders_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +1.8% | +0.3% | -1.5% | n/a | 1.57 | 0.41 | inside |
| US Durable Goods Shipments MoM, Jun 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_shipments_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.55 | inside |
| US construction spending MoM, June 2026 census.construction_spending.total_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.11 | 0.35 | inside |
| US JOLTS hires rate, June 2026 bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.3% | 3.4% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.061 | 0.72 | inside |
| US JOLTS hires rate, June 2026 bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_06.first_print PavelMakarchuk challenge submission | United States | Primary Claude Fable 5 (pavel onboarding agent) | 3.3% | 3.4% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.060 | 0.75 | inside |
| US Q2 2026 preliminary unit labor costs bls.productivity.nonfarm_unit_labor_costs_qoq_prelim.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +3.0% | +1.3% | -1.7% | n/a | 1.13 | 0.32 | inside |
| US Consumer Credit Annual Rate, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_total_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +2.2% | +3.3% | +1.1% | n/a | 0.72 | 0.68 | inside |
| US revolving credit growth, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +3.8% | +6.0% | +2.2% | n/a | 1.69 | 0.64 | inside |
| US nonrevolving consumer credit annual rate, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_nonrevolving_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +1.9% | +2.3% | +0.4% | n/a | 0.51 | 0.57 | inside |
| US CPI Shelter MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.shelter_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | +0.1% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.083 | 0.23 | inside |
| US initial jobless claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 206k | 199k | -7k | 0.55 | 4.84 | 0.34 | inside |
| US initial jobless claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 187k | 199k | +12k | 0.81 | 7.09 | 0.82 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | 70827601099508 | 0.011 | 0.48 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | 91018466216188 | 0.014 | 0.026 | outside |
| US Total Industrial Production MoM, Jul 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.16 | 0.56 | inside |
| US Total Industry Capacity Utilization, July 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 76.14% | 76.3% | +0.16% | n/a | 0.13 | 0.62 | inside |
| US housing starts SAAR, July 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.1M | n/a | 0.085 | 0.31 | inside |
| US Import Prices MoM, July 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +1.0% | -0.4% | -1.4% | n/a | 0.97 | 0.063 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 25 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 212k | 197k | -15k | 1.86 | 10.3 | 0.067 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 25 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 208k | 197k | -11k | 1.27 | 7.09 | 0.089 | outside |
| US continued claims, July 25 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0057 | 0.30 | inside |
| US continued claims, July 25 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0027 | 0.32 | inside |
| Australia employment change, June 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 18k | 76k | +58k | n/a | 39.8 | 0.93 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 216k | 187k | -29k | 2.85 | 22.1 | 0.018 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 215k | 187k | -28k | 3.00 | 23.3 | 0.0 | outside |
| US Continued Claims, July 18 Week dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.032 | 0.064 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 216k | 208k | -8k | 0.62 | 4.79 | 0.25 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 215k | 208k | -7k | 0.53 | 4.13 | 0.18 | inside |
| US Continued Claims, Jul 11 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.012 | 0.31 | inside |
| VA pending disability claims, July 13 2026 va.vba.mmwr.claims_inventory.week_2026-07-13.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 604k | 601k | -3k | n/a | 1.82 | 0.31 | inside |
| SSI recipients aged 65+ June 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients_aged_65_plus.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.5m | 2.51m | +3k | n/a | 1.93 | 0.66 | inside |
| SSDI disabled workers, June 2026 ssa.oasdi.disabled_worker_beneficiaries.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 7.01m | 7.01m | -4k | n/a | 2.42 | 0.30 | inside |
| US 55+ LFPR, July 2026 bls.cps.lfpr_55_plus.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 37.1% | 36.9% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.15 | 0.033 | outside |
| Disability employment-population ratio, July 2026 bls.cps.LNU02374597.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 21.6% | 22.3% | +0.7% | n/a | 0.43 | 0.90 | inside |
| US nursing-home total nurse staffing HPRD, July 2026 first print cms.nursing_home_compare.reported_total_nurse_staffing_hprd_us.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.92 | 3.86 | -0.06 | n/a | 0.035 | 0.20 | inside |
| US home health employment, July 2026 bls.ces.home_health_care_services.employment.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.89m | 1.89m | -3k | n/a | 1.98 | 0.35 | inside |
| Colorado SSI recipients, July 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients.colorado.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 66k | 66k | -0k | n/a | 0.062 | 0.31 | inside |
| Colorado labor force, July 2026 bls.laus.colorado.labor_force.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.18m | 3.19m | +7k | n/a | 5.12 | 0.97 | outside |
| US nursing home occupancy, July 2026 cms.care_compare.nursing_home_occupancy_pct.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 79.82% | 80.45% | +0.63% | n/a | 0.59 | 1.00 | outside |
| Colorado SSI Recipients 65+ July 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients.colorado.aged_65_plus.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 23,060 | 23,094 | +34 | n/a | 20.6 | 0.88 | inside |
| US total industry capacity utilization, June 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 76.2% | 76.1% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.14 | 0.43 | inside |
| US industrial production MoM, Jun 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | +0.1% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.16 | 0.44 | inside |
| US import prices MoM, Jun 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +1.1% | +0.3% | -0.8% | n/a | 0.47 | 0.21 | inside |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.2M | 1.4M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.13 | 0.92 | outside |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.3M | 1.4M | +0.1M | n/a | 0.075 | 0.80 | inside |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.2M | 1.4M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.13 | 0.92 | outside |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.2M | 1.4M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.13 | 0.92 | outside |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.2M | 1.4M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.13 | 0.95 | outside |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.2M | 1.4M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.13 | 0.92 | outside |
| US continued claims, Jul 4 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.011 | 0.34 | inside |
| Core CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent ensemble | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.052 | 0.30 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings_total.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 7.35m | 7.59m | +244k | n/a | 186 | 0.64 | inside |
| UK monthly GDP growth, April 2026 ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.087 | 0.50 | inside |
| UK CPI annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.9% | 2.8% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| UK unemployment rate, Feb-Apr 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.february_to_april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 5.1% | 4.9% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.12 | 0.23 | inside |
| UK PAYE payrolled employees, May 2026 ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 30.2M | 30.3M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.095 | 0.90 | inside |
| Great Britain retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | +0.5% | +1.2% | +0.7% | n/a | 0.42 | 0.75 | inside |
| UK public sector net borrowing, May 2026 ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | £18.5B | £23.3B | +£4.8B | n/a | 2.87 | 0.85 | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.028 | 2.4e-7 | inside |
| Canada unemployment rate, May 2026 statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 7.0% | 6.6% | -0.4% | n/a | 0.27 | 0.078 | outside |
| Canada employment change, May 2026 statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | -10k | 88k | +98k | n/a | 67.9 | 0.94 | outside |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.7% | 3.2% | +0.5% | n/a | 0.33 | 0.92 | outside |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 2.6% | 3.2% | +0.6% | n/a | 0.41 | 0.93 | outside |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Canada | With packs gpt-5 Canada May CPI pack set | 2.7% | 3.2% | +0.5% | n/a | 0.30 | 0.83 | inside |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.63 | inside |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.63 | inside |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.63 | inside |
| Bank of Canada overnight rate, June 2026 bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.25% | 2.25% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.077 | 1.0 | inside |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.097 | 0.40 | inside |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | With packs gpt-5 Australia May labour pack set | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 15k | 40k | +25k | n/a | 17.3 | 0.67 | inside |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 10k | 40k | +30k | n/a | 19.7 | 0.69 | inside |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | With packs gpt-5 Australia May labour pack set | 20k | 40k | +20k | n/a | 15.5 | 0.62 | inside |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | 20k | 40k | +20k | n/a | 14.9 | 0.65 | inside |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 4.1% | 4.0% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.097 | 0.40 | inside |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 4.2% | 4.0% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.16 | 0.37 | inside |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | With packs gpt-5 Australia May CPI pack set | 4.6% | 4.0% | -0.6% | n/a | 0.35 | 0.20 | inside |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.9% | 4.0% | -0.9% | n/a | 0.60 | 0.081 | outside |
| RBA cash rate target, June 2026 rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026 Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 4.35% | 4.35% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.028 | 2.4e-7 | inside |
| ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026 ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.0% | 2.25% | +0.25% | n/a | 0.13 | 0.90 | inside |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, May 2026 final eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.022 | 0.50 | inside |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.10 | inside |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Euro area | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.0% | 2.8% | +0.8% | n/a | 0.64 | 1.00 | outside |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 6.3% | 6.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.062 | 0.10 | inside |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | Primary gpt-5.5 | 6.3% | 6.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.063 | 0.30 | inside |
| Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026 boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026 Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 0.75% | 1.0% | +0.25% | n/a | 0.13 | 0.90 | inside |
| Japan CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.087 | 0.50 | inside |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 1.6% | 1.7% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.097 | 0.60 | inside |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.5% | 1.7% | -1.8% | n/a | 1.38 | 0.017 | outside |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.50 | inside |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.50 | inside |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.50 | inside |
| US PPI final demand inflation, May 2026 bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.5% | +1.1% | +0.6% | n/a | 0.34 | 0.80 | inside |
| US industrial production growth, May 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.2% | +0.1% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.16 | 0.44 | inside |
| US capacity utilization, May 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | 76.3% | 76.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.15 | 0.44 | inside |
| US import price inflation, May 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.6% | +1.9% | +1.3% | n/a | 0.89 | 0.93 | outside |
| US housing starts, May 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.2M | n/a | 0.16 | 0.086 | outside |
| US total business inventories, April 2026 census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $2,725B | $2,726.6B | +$1.6B | n/a | 1.87 | 0.59 | inside |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $4,997B | $5,024.4B | +$27.4B | n/a | 16.0 | 0.73 | inside |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $4,990B | $5,024.4B | +$34.4B | n/a | 20.3 | 0.70 | inside |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA social-benefits pack set | $4,998B | $5,024.4B | +$26.4B | n/a | 16.3 | 0.69 | inside |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $4,315B | $5,024.4B | +$709.4B | n/a | 697 | 1.00 | outside |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $1,650B | $1,638.1B | -$11.9B | n/a | 7.32 | 0.10 | inside |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $1,650B | $1,638.1B | -$11.9B | n/a | 7.05 | 0.24 | inside |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA social-benefits pack set | $1,651B | $1,638.1B | -$12.9B | n/a | 8.43 | 0.088 | outside |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $1,650.5B | $1,638.1B | -$12.4B | n/a | 7.63 | 0.10 | inside |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $1,332B | $1,332B | $0B | n/a | 3.03 | 0.50 | inside |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $1,330B | $1,332B | +$2B | n/a | 3.99 | 0.54 | inside |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA social-benefits pack set | $1,332B | $1,332B | $0B | n/a | 2.60 | 0.50 | inside |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $1,332B | $1,332B | $0B | n/a | 1.30 | 0.50 | inside |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $1,041B | $1,052.2B | +$11.2B | n/a | 6.17 | 0.78 | inside |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $1,038B | $1,052.2B | +$14.2B | n/a | 8.37 | 0.78 | inside |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA social-benefits pack set | $1,041B | $1,052.2B | +$11.2B | n/a | 6.43 | 0.74 | inside |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $1,037.5B | $1,052.2B | +$14.7B | n/a | 8.79 | 0.82 | inside |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $13,350B | $13,388.8B | +$38.8B | n/a | 22.3 | 0.78 | inside |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $13,345B | $13,388.8B | +$43.8B | n/a | 25.9 | 0.77 | inside |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA personal-income pack set | $13,362B | $13,388.8B | +$26.8B | n/a | 16.3 | 0.72 | inside |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $13,365B | $13,388.8B | +$23.8B | n/a | 14.3 | 0.74 | inside |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $3,266.8B | $3,264.7B | -$2.1B | n/a | 5.89 | 0.46 | inside |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $3,262B | $3,264.7B | +$2.7B | n/a | 8.19 | 0.52 | inside |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA personal-income pack set | $3,268B | $3,264.7B | -$3.3B | n/a | 5.96 | 0.43 | inside |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $23,512B | $23,651.7B | +$139.7B | n/a | 89.8 | 0.92 | outside |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $23,500B | $23,651.7B | +$151.7B | n/a | 93.9 | 0.91 | outside |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA personal-income pack set | $23,520B | $23,651.7B | +$131.7B | n/a | 85.0 | 0.92 | outside |
| US PCE price index inflation, May 2026 bea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.068 | 0.63 | inside |
| US real GDP growth, Q1 2026 third estimate bea.real_gdp.saar.q1_2026.third_estimate Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +1.5% | +2.1% | +0.6% | n/a | 0.41 | 0.93 | outside |
| US federal monthly deficit, May 2026 treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $305B | $292.6B | -$12.4B | n/a | 16.1 | 0.42 | inside |
| US aerospace products employment, June 2026 bls.ces.aerospace_product_and_parts_employment.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | 589k | 592k | +3k | n/a | 1.79 | 0.65 | inside |
| US ship and boat building employment, June 2026 bls.ces.ship_and_boat_building_employment.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | 148k | 149k | +1k | n/a | 0.51 | 0.69 | inside |
| Federal DoD employment, June 2026 bls.ces.federal_department_of_defense_employment.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | 474k | 476k | +2k | n/a | 5.34 | 0.52 | inside |
| CPS business and financial employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 10.04m | 9.72m | -320k | n/a | 188 | 0.21 | inside |
| CPS computer and mathematical employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 6.92m | 6.95m | +30k | n/a | 92.9 | 0.53 | inside |
| CPS healthcare support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 5.8m | 5.69m | -109k | n/a | 98.5 | 0.39 | inside |
| CPS office and administrative support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 16.30m | 16.18m | -116k | n/a | 149 | 0.43 | inside |
| CPS production employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 7.9m | 7.76m | -141k | n/a | 112 | 0.36 | inside |
| CPS transportation and material moving employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 12.10m | 12.01m | -90k | n/a | 135 | 0.44 | inside |
| Canada retail sales growth, April 2026 statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.6% | +0.5% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.45 | inside |
| Canada wholesale sales growth, April 2026 statcan.wholesale_trade.sales_mom_exclusions.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.2% | +0.6% | +0.4% | n/a | 0.31 | 0.63 | inside |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | 552k | 544k | -8k | n/a | 5.11 | 0.31 | inside |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | 556k | 544k | -12k | n/a | 7.42 | 0.28 | inside |
| Canada building permit value growth, April 2026 statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | -2.0% | -7.6% | -5.6% | n/a | 4.04 | 0.34 | inside |
| Euro area industrial production growth, April 2026 eurostat.industrial_production.euro_area.april_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.25 | 0.53 | inside |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.55 | inside |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.19 | 0.55 | inside |
| Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026 abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +2.0% | -1.1% | -3.1% | n/a | 3.52 | 0.41 | inside |
| Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026 abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | +2.0% | -1.1% | -3.1% | n/a | 3.14 | 0.40 | inside |
| Japan real household spending growth, May 2026 statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.37 | 0.48 | inside |
| Japan real household spending growth, May 2026 statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | -1.1% | -0.4% | +0.7% | n/a | 0.73 | 0.58 | inside |
| US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | +0.1% | +0.1% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.13 | 0.50 | inside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.2M | n/a | 0.15 | 0.079 | outside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.2M | n/a | 0.11 | 0.12 | inside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Brier-1 - housing packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May housing starts pack set | 1.5M | 1.2M | -0.3M | n/a | 0.18 | 0.071 | outside |
| UK CPIH annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpih.annual_rate.2026-05 Headline | United Kingdom | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.065 | 0.50 | inside |
| FOMC June 2026 decision: federal funds target range upper bound us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.077 | 1.0 | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Headline | United Kingdom | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.028 | 2.4e-7 | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Thesis analyst fast run | United Kingdom | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.50 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 222k | 226k | +4k | n/a | 4.65 | 0.58 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 219k | 226k | +7k | n/a | 5.88 | 0.61 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Brier-1 - claims packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June weekly claims pack set | 225k | 226k | +1k | n/a | 3.92 | 0.52 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 225k | 226k | +1k | n/a | 3.71 | 0.52 | inside |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Japan | Primary claude-fable-5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.087 | 0.50 | inside |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.0% | 1.4% | -1.6% | n/a | 1.33 | 0.0 | outside |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Canada | Primary claude-fable-5 | 2.8% | 3.2% | +0.4% | n/a | 0.24 | 0.82 | inside |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 2.6% | 3.2% | +0.6% | n/a | 0.36 | 0.90 | inside |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Canada | With packs gpt-5 Canada May CPI pack set | 2.7% | 3.2% | +0.5% | n/a | 0.28 | 0.79 | inside |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.7% | 3.2% | +0.5% | n/a | 0.28 | 0.79 | inside |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Australia | Primary claude-fable-5 | 4.1% | 4.0% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.14 | 0.43 | inside |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 4.1% | 4.0% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.14 | 0.43 | inside |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Australia | With packs gpt-5 Australia May CPI pack set | 4.5% | 4.0% | -0.5% | n/a | 0.30 | 0.25 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 220k | 215k | -5k | n/a | 5.22 | 0.41 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 221k | 215k | -6k | n/a | 5.83 | 0.40 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June weekly claims pack set | 226k | 215k | -11k | n/a | 7.18 | 0.29 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 226k | 215k | -11k | n/a | 7.18 | 0.29 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 225k | 215k | -10k | n/a | 6.14 | 0.26 | inside |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.039 | 0.63 | inside |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.046 | 0.69 | inside |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Brier-1 - PCE bridge packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May core PCE bridge pack set | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.035 | 0.58 | inside |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.035 | 0.58 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 7.4M | 7.6M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.16 | 0.70 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 7.2M | 7.6M | +0.4M | n/a | 0.26 | 0.77 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - JOLTS packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May JOLTS labor pack set | 7.4M | 7.6M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.15 | 0.72 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 7.5M | 7.6M | +0.1M | n/a | 0.14 | 0.60 | inside |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Headline | Euro area | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.2% | 2.8% | -0.4% | n/a | 0.25 | 0.10 | inside |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.3% | 2.8% | -0.5% | n/a | 0.32 | 0.10 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 140k | 57k | -83k | n/a | 49.0 | 0.18 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 125k | 57k | -68k | n/a | 43.5 | 0.30 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June labor-market pack set | 150k | 57k | -93k | n/a | 54.5 | 0.18 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 150k | 57k | -93k | n/a | 56.1 | 0.28 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 140k | 57k | -83k | n/a | 49.0 | 0.18 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.063 | 0.30 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June labor-market pack set | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.063 | 0.30 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.074 | 0.30 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.074 | 0.30 | inside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | +0.4% | -0.4% | -0.8% | n/a | 0.64 | 0.0 | outside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | +0.3% | -0.4% | -0.8% | n/a | 0.58 | 0.024 | outside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - CPI energy packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June monthly CPI pack set | +0.5% | -0.4% | -0.9% | n/a | 0.69 | 0.0 | outside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | -0.4% | -0.8% | n/a | 0.65 | 0.0 | outside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | -0.4% | -0.8% | n/a | 0.65 | 0.0 | outside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | -0.4% | -0.6% | n/a | 0.45 | 0.033 | outside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | -0.4% | -0.8% | n/a | 0.65 | 0.0 | outside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | -0.4% | -0.6% | n/a | 0.43 | 0.045 | outside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | -0.4% | -0.6% | n/a | 0.45 | 0.018 | outside |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | -0.4% | -0.6% | n/a | 0.45 | 0.033 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.20 | 0.067 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.056 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - core CPI packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June core CPI pack set | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.22 | 0.033 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.21 | 0.067 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.21 | 0.067 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | +0.0% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.021 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.23 | 0.0 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.23 | 0.0 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.19 | 0.070 | outside |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.23 | 0.0 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 220k | 215k | -5k | n/a | 4.31 | 0.38 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 218k | 215k | -3k | n/a | 3.29 | 0.41 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 219k | 215k | -4k | n/a | 3.87 | 0.40 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 216k | 215k | -1k | n/a | 2.85 | 0.47 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 217k | 215k | -2k | n/a | 2.66 | 0.42 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Median of 3 rollouts | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 218k | 215k | -3k | n/a | 3.33 | 0.41 | inside |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, May 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | 538k | 544k | +6k | n/a | 4.69 | 0.62 | inside |
| Australia unemployment rate, June 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.076 | 0.50 | inside |
| Australia CPI inflation, Jun 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-06.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.4% | 3.8% | -0.6% | n/a | 0.35 | 0.16 | inside |
| US core PCE MoM June 2026 us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-06 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.1% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.14 | 0.073 | outside |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, July 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-07 Headline | Euro area | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.6% | 2.9% | +0.3% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.74 | inside |
| Canada GDP by industry, May 2026 statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-05.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.2% | n/a | 0.12 | 0.77 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, Jun 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 7.5M | 7.4M | -0.1M | n/a | 0.14 | 0.44 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, July 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.3% | 4.1% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.12 | 0.10 | inside |
| US CPI-U July 2026 MoM bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.1% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.14 | 0.30 | inside |
| US core CPI July 2026 MoM bls.cpi.u.core_mom.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.063 | 0.30 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0036 | 0.26 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0064 | 0.41 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0036 | 0.26 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0060 | 0.46 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0054 | 0.44 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0056 | 0.41 | inside |
| SSI recipients, July 2026 ssa.ssi.total_recipients.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 7.3M | 7.3M | -0M | n/a | 0.0073 | 0.38 | inside |